- College football week 13 signifies the end of the season and start of rivalry week
- Wildcats are double digit favorites in the Kansas vs Kansas State Odds
- Read below for our best college football betting pick for Saturday night
There’s few other times of the year that are better than feast week, but it also signals the end of the college football season. It’s even more disanointing when bowl season is filled with opt-outs and motivational question marks. So be sure to soak in all the rivalry games you can, even with a 20+ point spread in the Iron Bowl, you need to watch it! But we’ve got some value in the Kansas vs Kansas State odds to take advantage of.
The Wildcats are a win away from playing for the BIG12 Championship next week. A loss, and Texas could claim that spot in Dallas with a win over Baylor. The Jayhawks don’t have as much to play for as they’ve clinched a bowl spot, this is already their most winning season since 2008. But in a rivalry game like the Sunflower Showdown there’s plenty of motivation.
Kansas vs Kansas State Odds
|Kansas Jayhawks||+340||+11.5 (-110)||O 62.5 (-110)|
|Kansas State Wildcats||-455||-11.5 (-110)||U 62.5 (-110)|
Odds courtesy of BetMGM!
Kansas sports betting markets have nailed this number at -11.5 for Kansas State all week, they’ve been a great team against the spread at home this season going 4-2. One other interesting betting note is on the total, when Kansas is on the road the over is a perfect 5-0 in 2022.
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Expect a Healthy Jalon Daniels for KU
The Jayhawks are coming off a 55-14 drubbing by the hands of Texas last week, giving up over 400 yards on the ground! But they also got Jalon Daniels back from a shoulder injury, he certainly looked rusty, but he’s been one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in college football when healthy. Kansas needs his dual threat ability, their heavy rushing attack has opened up an explosive passing game.
Kansas is running the ball on 56.4% of plays and it’s for good reason, they rank top-20 in the nation in EPA/rush. They’re very explosive unit on the ground, ranking 5th BOOM% on the season. The combination of Daniels and Devin Neal is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, which is 2nd in the country. The success of the run allows them to chase big plays through the air, ranking 1st BOOM% when passing and averaging 9.2 yards per attempt.
The defense, particularly against the run, is the teams achilles heel. The Jayhawks are 119th in EPA/rush against and it’s because they aren’t making enough plays at the line scrimmage. Only five other FBS teams have a lower than 14% stuff rate that Kansas has. Not to mention, they’re a bottom-10 unit opponent broken/missed tackle rate. This can be a recipe for disaster as an underdog.
Kansas State Playing for BIG12 Championship Berth
The Wildcats offense is very similar in approach to the Jayhawks, the running game led by Deuce Vaughn is the focal point. But with Will Howard now at quarterback, the pass game isn’t too bad either. K-State is running the ball on 57.4% of plays and they’re doing it efficiently, ranking 38th in EPA/rush. Though they’ve been good, they’ve had some issues in those must have situations, ranking 123rd in power success rate. Vaughn is electric in the opening field but his stature doesn’t fit short yardage situations.
There are some injury concerns for Kansas State on the backend of their defense, both Kobe Savage and Cincere Mason are lost for the season at both safety spots. This could leave them susceptible to some big plays over the top or on the second level when it comes to tackling. Much like the Jayhawks, they haven’t been a great tackling team, ranking even lower in opponent broken tackle rate.
🏈 #Big12FB Standings through Nov. 23 🏈
– Kansas State can clinch the second spot in the 2022 Dr Pepper Big 12 Football Championship with a win or a Texas loss.
– Texas can clinch with a win and a Kansas State loss.
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 24, 2022
Kansas vs Kansas State Pick
If you’re looking to place a wager on this game you need to monitor the Wildcats motivation. If Texas were to fall to Baylor earlier in the day, the Wildcats will secure their berth in the conference championship game. Whether or not that changes personnel is anyone’s best guess, especially in a rivalry game, but it’s something to consider.
These teams are both top-30 in offensive points per game, but they’re actually both outside the top-100 in pace of play. We’ve covered these defenses though, they’ve struggled against run. So that’s going to keep me from taking part in betting on this total.
I like Kansas to keep themselves within double digits. The Wildcats are banged up, losing those two safeties will be a problem as they aren’t generating enough pressure at the line of scrimmage. There’s still likely to be plenty of points here, but I think with both teams running the football this game may not have as many possessions as one may think.
Pick: Kansas +11.5 (-110) at BetMGM