- Cincinnati plays host to one of the biggest games of NFL Week 13
- Kansas City are road favorites in the Chiefs vs Bengals odds
- Read below for our best NFL betting pick on Sunday at Caesars Sportsbook
We’re getting into the home stretch of the NFL season, there is only 1/3 of the season remaining. We’re also getting some great matchups this weekend, highlighted by the 4pm window. Cincinnati plays host to Kansas City in NFL week 13, it’s their first time meeting since the Chiefs second half collapse in the AFC Championship game. Despite winning both matchups last season, Cincinnati is a home underdog in the Chiefs vs Bengals odds.
The Chiefs are looking to keep separation from the field to hang onto their #1 seed in the AFC and a bye in the Wild Card round. Meanwhile, the Bengals have won three straight and now find themselves tied atop the AFC North. Let’s take a look at the Chiefs vs Bengals odds before finding my favorite bet in this one.
Chiefs vs Bengals Odds
|Kansas City Chiefs||-135||-2 (-110)||O 53 (-110)|
|Cincinnati Bengals||_115||+2 (-110)||U 53 (-110)|
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook!
Kansas sports betting markets are seeing plenty of action down on the Chiefs, but haven’t done much to change the number. The Bengals are the best against the spread team in the NFL, sporting a 8-3 record overall, including 3-1 ATS at home. The Chiefs have actually been better ATS on the road then at home, going 3-2 against the spread away from Arrowhead Stadium.
Ohio sports betting is not yet legalized for Bengals fan in the Buckeye state, but that won’t be the case for much longer. DraftKings Sportsbook Ohio is actually running a pre-registration offer in preparation for the launch of Ohio online sports betting on January 1, 2023.
Chiefs Road Favorites in Week 13 NFL Odds
Kansas City has rattled off five straight wins since falling to the Bills in week 6. Not only is Patrick Mahomes asserting himself as the MVP front runner, but the defense is taking some significant strides. They’ve also managed to remain healthy and that can be in important recipe in making a Super Bowl run.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defensive approach has remained constant ever since his arrival in KC. You’ll see this team in plenty of two-high shell coverages and he’ll often look for opportunities to blitz, ranking 10th in blitz rate this season. It’ll be interesting to see his approach against Burrow, who’s been one of the league’s best against the blitz. You’ll also see the Chiefs with 6 defensive backs on the field on over 21% of plays, leaving plenty of opportunities to run the ball.
Isiah Pacheco ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards since Week 10 with 258 yards on the ground. He's averaging 4.87 yards-per-carry in that time.
— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) November 28, 2022
Kansas City’s rushing attack has been elevated since making the move to Isiah Pacheco as the lead back, now ranking top-10 in rushing EPA per play. This is an important note as the Bengals have played with as many as eight players in coverage in their previous matchups. A capable run game could open up their elite downfield passing offense in this one.
Bengals Look to Keep Pace in AFC North
It’s difficult to look past Cincinnati’s success against Kansas City last season. They made life miserable for Mahomes, testing his patience and willingness to be disciplined to take what’s being given to him. That will certainly be a point of emphasis. The Bengals are likely to try to do this again, they’ve been able to generate plenty of pressure in 2022 without blitzing. That’s a credit to Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson coming around the edge.
Everyone has been talking about the Bengals second half defense, who didn’t give up a single touchdown in the first seven weeks of the season. Their second half performances all started from that AFC Championship game last season.
The offense could very well get it’s best weapon back this weekend, Ja’Marr Chase practiced in full on Friday. There was chatter about him being ready last week, but they wanted to ensure he was 100% before seeing game action. Chase has been the best receiver in football against man coverage, the Chiefs 30% rate in man coverage is in the upper half of the NFL.
Chiefs vs Bengals Pick
There’s one side of this game that I feel we have a good understanding of, and that’s when the Chiefs have the ball. The Bengals are going to force the Chiefs into checking the ball down as well as inviting them to hand the ball off. Without Mecole Hardman or Kadarius Toney, the Chiefs are missing a true field stretcher to beat them over the top.
I’m playing the Chiefs team total under 27.5 here. Cincinnati ranks 24th in seconds per play, when they have the ball they’ll have success and burn plenty of clock. I’m entrusting their defensive scheme to keep their opponent under 28 points, they’ve done that in 10 of 11 games this season.
Pick: Chiefs TT U27.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook