Bengals vs Chiefs Odds & Pick for AFC Championship Game

• The Bengals travel to Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game
• Kansas City are 1-point home favorites in the Bengals vs Chiefs odds
• Read below to lock in the best NFL betting picks for Conference Championship weekend

The AFC Championship game is back in Kansas City and for the fifth consecutive season, the Chiefs will play at home with an opportunity to go to the Super Bowl. In a rematch of last year’s title game, the Bengals come into Kansas City off of an impressive win in Buffalo. With Patrick Mahomes expected to play, the Bengals vs Chiefs odds have shifted back in Kansas CIty’s favor and although he will be out there, it remains to be seen how restricted his movements may be.

The Bengals are going to give the Chiefs all they can handle. Joe Burrow is playing at an elite level and if they can get an early lead and follow a similar game plan to last week’s blowout victory in Buffalo, they will be in a great spot to advance to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season. Their hobbled offensive line survived last weekend and if their depth lineman can continue to protect Burrow, this game has the potential to be incredible, start to finish.

Bengals vs Chiefs Betting Odds

Cincinnati Bengals Betting Outlook

Zac Taylor outcoached Sean McDermott in every facet of the game last Sunday. This weekend should give him a much bigger task with an Andy Reid led team on the other side of the field. One thing to note is Joe Burrow having a career 3-0 record against Patrick Mahomes. Although head-to-head records don’t really come into play when handicapping, it is definitely an interesting stat considering Mahomes record against the rest of the NFL.

Spread for AFC Championship Game at @BetMGM

Open: Chiefs -1.5

Monday: Bengals -1.5

Tuesday: Bengals -2.5

Wednesday: Bengals -1.5

Thursday: Chiefs -1

Friday: Chiefs -1.5

— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) January 27, 2023

This game will come down to the Bengals offensive line and skill positions. If they can control the pace of play and find success through the air early, the path to the Super Bowl is clear. With the Chiefs having a hobbled quarterback they could attempt to slow the game down with more rushing attempts and as they did against the Jaguars, score on multiple possessions of six plus minutes. With that being said, we could see a clash of game plans on Sunday evening which I oddly enough believe favors the Bengals.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Outlook

The Kansas City Chiefs are once again hosting the AFC Championship game. After an injury scare to Patrick Mahomes ankle, he went on to throw for 195 yards against the Jaguars which included two touchdown passes. The diagnoses came in as a high-ankle sprain which will almost assuredly hinder his ability to scramble which will in turn force the Chiefs into game planning around it.

Enter Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 95 yards on 12 carries and looked the part in his first ever playoff game. Between Pacheco rushing and Jerrick McKinnon catching balls out of the backfield, expect the Chiefs to go to their running backs early and often. Before we lock in a pick, Patrick Mahomes is a career 10-5 ATS in games the Chiefs are favorites of three or less.

Bengals vs Chiefs Pick and Prediction

The money and betting splits are insanely tight. I expect this game to come down to a fourth quarter turnover or a game winning drive late.  Either way, the truth is, I don’t think there is a strong enough angle to bet either side.  Rather, I am diving into the prop market and going to Chiefs receiver Kadarius Toney. Between the game plan and who I believe Mahomes will lean on in this situation, Toney is a perfect fade for me. I am taking a chance by sprinkling two of his props to the under.

Best Bets: Kadarius Toney u35.5 Receiving (-110), Kadarius Toney u3.5 Receptions (-130)