Nov 22-
- The Bills travel Detroit to take on the Lions to kick-off Thanksgiving
- Buffalo is 9.5-point road favorites in the Bills vs Lions odds
- NFL has treated us well with a 15-6 record on article plays this season
Thanksgiving football. One of the absolute best days of the year. Before jumping into the game we must recognize one thing: the Detroit Lions are winners of three straight. In an under the radar storyline, the 4-6 Lions have found a groove and are looking to shock the world Thursday afternoon. Buffalo comes to town as considerable favorites, favored over Detroit by 9.5 points in the Bills vs Lions odds.
The Bills are a 7-3 ball club who have not been clicking on all cylinders in what feels like months. A 7-3 team who has been playing far below their potential should be worrisome for the rest of the NFL and if they happen to figure it out on Thursday, the Lions could be in for a long afternoon.
Josh Allen has been battling both an elbow injury and some mental hurdles in which he appears to be second guessing some throws. With that being said, he is in a fantastic spot to break out of his funk this week against the leagues worst defense. The Lions are giving up 415.9 yards per game and 28.2 points per game, both far and away the worst in the NFL. This matchup carries a total of 54 and with a high scoring game expected, the player prop route is the clear way to go in this game.
Bills vs Lions Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| Buffalo Bills | -425 | -9.5 (-110) | O 54 (-110) |
| Detroit Lions | +340 | +9.5 (-110) | U 54 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM!
Michigan sports betting markets have made the Bills favorites in each and every game this season, they’ve responded with a 5-4-1 record ATS. Detroit meanwhile has been a home underdog three times, sporting a 2-1 ATS record in 2022.
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Buffalo Bills Betting Outlook
The Buffalo Bills have been battling injuries to their defense which has completely altered their mid season outlook. Although most teams will say injuries are part of the game, this Bills secondary has been playing with backups at just about every position for a good part of the last six weeks. Is this the reason they dropped two straight to the Jets and Vikings? probably not, but it certainly played a massive factor. As the Bills begin to get healthier, they will still be without a few key contributors on Thursday. Thankfully for Buffalo, the Lions will not be able to stop the Bills offense and they should have no issue outscoring this Detroit team if it becomes a shootout. Not to mention, Josh Allen practiced without a brace and appears to be much closer to 100%.
Very encouraging sign for #Billsmafia today. Josh Allen was not wearing any sleeve or brace on his right elbow. He also threw passes during the media-available portion of practice for the first time since injuring his elbow 🎥 pic.twitter.com/aSfWY5by1E
— Sal Capaccio 🏈 (@SalSports) November 22, 2022
As mentioned above, the 7-3 Bills are starting to go from overrated to underrated and just when people count Josh Allen and Sean McDermott out, they usually go on a run to prove they belong. For an offense that is still trying to form an identity that does not include Josh launching the ball on every play, the Bills are a work in progress. They established a run game a week ago which could go a long way both in the remaining regular season games and more importantly, the playoffs. Strangely enough, Buffalo leads the NFL in drives that end in points and drives that end in turnovers. Once again proving just how lethal they can be at their full potential. Josh Allen is going to clean up those turnovers and when he does, expect this team to reach new heights.
Detroit Lions Betting Outlook
Three straight wins for the first time in five years. This Lions team is slowly coming together and although there should be doubt surrounding the capability of coach Dan Campbell, you have to give him credit here. With a poor defense and an offense that can get the ball in the end zone, the Lions hold a 7-3 record to the over which once again plays into our hands as bettors.
What I am focused on here is how the Lions cornerbacks can possibly defend the Bills passing attack. This secondary is allowing 262.2 passing yards per game and they are now tasked with stopping Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs in a dome. The Lions current win streak is a fun story but for them to remain competitive in this matchup, a lot would have to go their way. It is a 12:30 kickoff on a short week and stranger things have happened but as a whole, I really do not like this spot for Detroit, who is due for a letdown.
Bills vs. Lions Pick and Prediction
Staying away from the side and total here. Loading up on Bills. Josh Allen has a passing yards prop of 270.5 and it’s just really hard to ignore. I know, short week, injured elbow, I get it. But, it’s Josh Allen and I think he’s ready to get back into form, playable to 280.5. I am taking his over 270.5 passing and pairing it with Devin Singletary and his over 14.5 receiving yards. Ken Dorsey and Sean McDermott are repeatedly telling Josh to take what’s there and what’s there is Devin Singletary wide open underneath on just about every route. If the Lions stay true to their tendencies and run a man defense, Singletary will benefit.
Best Bets: Josh Allen Over 270.5 PASS YDs (-115), Devin Singletary Over 14.5 REC YDs (-111)
