Jul 28-
- MLB NRFI odds and records for all 30 teams
- The Marlins and Reds have the best NRFI winning percentage
- Read below for a full report on the best bet in baseball as we breakdown NRFI odds for all 30 MLB teams
With the second half of the 2022 MLB season well underway as teams near the 100-game mark, now feels like a perfect time to take a look at how each of the 30 teams have stacked up against the most electric bet in baseball, the NRFI. Including NRFI odds on some games this week!
As someone who prides themselves as, at the very least, an above-average No Run First Inning bettor, I’ve kept a very close eye on all things-NRFI this season, and have been able to make some money while doing it. Six outs is all it takes.
Let’s have a look at the MLB NRFI records for all teams:
MLB NRFI Records
| Team | NRFI | YRFI | NRFI % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 57 | 40 | 59% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 56 | 40 | 58.5% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 55 | 42 | 56.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 55 | 42 | 56.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 55 | 43 | 56% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 54 | 43 | 55.5% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 53 | 43 | 55% |
| Atlanta Braves | 54 | 45 | 54.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 54 | 45 | 54.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 53 | 44 | 54.5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 53 | 45 | 54% |
| New York Yankees | 52 | 46 | 53% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 51 | 47 | 52% |
| Texas Rangers | 50 | 46 | 52% |
| Houston Astros | 50 | 48 | 51% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 48 | 48 | 50% |
| Oakland Athletics | 49 | 51 | 49% |
| Kansas City Royals | 48 | 49 | 49.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 48 | 50 | 49% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 47 | 50 | 48.5% |
| New York Mets | 46 | 51 | 47.5% |
| Colorado Rockies | 46 | 52 | 47% |
| Detroit Tigers | 46 | 52 | 47% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 45 | 52 | 46.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 45 | 52 | 46.5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 45 | 53 | 46% |
| Washington Nationals | 44 | 55 | 44.5% |
| Minnesota Twins | 43 | 54 | 44.5% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 55 | 43.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 41 | 56 | 42.5% |
Last updated July 26th
We start off with the overall records of every team in the 1st Inning this season so far. There is absolutely, and always will be, a strong correlation between the most successful NRFI teams and those who have poor hitters, but strong pitchers.
The Marlins are a prime example of this, as they rank 24th in runs scored but ninth in ERA, and subsequently leading the charge as the best NRFI team this season.
Individual Team Runs Scored in 1st Inning
| Team | No Runs Scored | Scored | Team NRFI % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 81 | 16 | 83.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 80 | 17 | 82.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 78 | 20 | 79.5% |
| Detroit Tigers | 78 | 20 | 79.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 75 | 22 | 77.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 74 | 23 | 76.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 73 | 23 | 76% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 73 | 24 | 75.5% |
| Texas Rangers | 72 | 24 | 75% |
| Oakland Athletics | 75 | 25 | 75% |
| San Diego Padres | 74 | 25 | 74.5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 25 | 74% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 70 | 27 | 72% |
| Atlanta Braves | 71 | 28 | 71.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 70 | 28 | 71.5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 70 | 28 | 71.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 69 | 28 | 71% |
| Kansas City Royals | 69 | 28 | 71% |
| Cleveland Indians | 67 | 29 | 70% |
| Washington Nationals | 69 | 30 | 69.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 67 | 31 | 68.5% |
| Colorado Rockies | 67 | 31 | 68.5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 64 | 34 | 65.5% |
| Houston Astros | 64 | 34 | 65.5% |
| New York Yankees | 64 | 34 | 65.5% |
| New York Mets | 63 | 34 | 65% |
| Chicago Cubs | 61 | 36 | 63% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 61 | 36 | 63% |
| Minnesota Twins | 60 | 37 | 62% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 59 | 37 | 61.5% |
Last updated July 26th
Next, we have team-specific records on scoring in the 1st Inning. It’s no surprise that this generally correlates with the MLB standings, as the teams with the worst bats are great at not scoring in the first, while being near the bottom of the league overall. We do have a few outliers here on opposite ends of the spectrum, however, most notably being the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs.
While the O’s have proven to be a reputable team this season, it seems to take them a few innings to get bats on balls, as they are dead last in scoring in the first inning. On the contrary, the Chicago Cubs, one of the worst teams in the big leagues, have managed to score in 37% of the 1st innings they have played.
Opponent Runs Scored in 1st Inning
| Team | Opponent Not Scoring | Opponent Scoring | Opponent NRFI % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 77 | 19 | 20% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 75 | 21 | 22% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 75 | 22 | 22.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 75 | 22 | 22.5% |
| New York Mets | 75 | 22 | 22.5% |
| New York Yankees | 75 | 23 | 23.5 % |
| Houston Astros | 75 | 23 | 23.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 75 | 24 | 24% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 74 | 24 | 24.5% |
| Seattle Mariners | 73 | 25 | 25.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | 73 | 26 | 26.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 71 | 26 | 27% |
| Chicago Cubs | 70 | 27 | 28% |
| Kansas City Royals | 70 | 27 | 28% |
| Minnesota Twins | 70 | 27 | 28% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 69 | 27 | 28% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 69 | 29 | 29.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 68 | 29 | 30% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 68 | 29 | 30% |
| Colorado Rockies | 68 | 30 | 30.5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 68 | 30 | 30.5% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 67 | 30 | 31% |
| Texas Rangers | 66 | 30 | 31.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 67 | 31 | 31.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 65 | 32 | 33% |
| Oakland Athletics | 65 | 35 | 35% |
| Chicago White Sox | 63 | 34 | 35% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 63 | 34 | 35% |
| Washington Nationals | 62 | 37 | 37.5% |
| Detroit Tigers | 59 | 39 | 40% |
Last updated July 26th
Finally, we have opponent’s NRFI records against each team. This is where we get to see how each team’s pitching staff, and even defense shakes up when it comes to playing their part in the NRFI and getting 3 outs.
Again, it’s no surprise that the worst teams in the league happen to have poor pitching, which is evident in the amount of runs allowed in the 1st. But I also enjoy using these numbers to zero in on a better pitcher on one of these lower-ranked teams, whether that be Zac Gallen and his 18-3 NRFI record for the Diamondbacks, or even the Tigers’ Michael Pineda, who hadn’t allowed a run in the first all season before his last two starts.
Now without further adieu, let’s take a look at the slate for the next few days and find a few spots that look appealing.
Best NRFI Plays – Thursday, July 28th
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds: +100
Kicking off this afternoon, we’ve got an absolute treat of a NRFI that is completely backed by the stats. The Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins face off in the final game of their 4-game series, with Graham Ashcraft on the bump for Cincinnati and Daniel Castano throwing for the Marlins. No Runs to be scored in the First Inning is currently listed at +100 on Caesars Sportsbook, and it is absolutely the play in this matchup.
Miami and Cincinnati rank 1st and 2nd overall, with the NRFI cashing in over 58% of their games. Now 3 games in, the NRFI would be a perfect 3-0 in this series had it not been for a 2-out, 2 strike hit from the Reds’ Kyle Farmer last night that plated a run.
What better way to kick off the weekend than some extra coin courtesy of the Party Parlay💰
Guardians ML (@SandyPlashkes)
Cubs/Phillies NRFI (@L__Snipe)
Padres/Mets F5 u3.5 (@RyanSura18)
Eovaldi u5.5 K’s (@TylerMacKillop)Let’s ride. pic.twitter.com/ezTqoEi7xw
— OwnersBox (@OwnersBox) July 22, 2022
I’m going to lean heavily on the fact that the Marlins simply cannot hit a baseball in the first inning (1 run in last 18 1st innings) and assume Ashcraft can get through the top of their order. Ashcraft is a .500 NRFI pitcher this year, however 4 of his 5 NRFI losses have come against the Brewers, Cardinals, Yankees and Mets, who are all miles ahead of these Reds.
On the other side, Castano is making just his 6th start of the season for Miami. Though it’s a small sample size, Castano is a perfect 5-0 in the NRFI this year, including shutting out the Mets twice. I believe the underexperienced pitching in this game is the reason for such high odds, but when we’re talking about 6 outs, you can never be too sure about anything.
There is no denying that the NRFI is one of the least predictable bets on the board, as one swing of the bat can change it all. But having the numbers on your side certainly never hurts, and a plus-odds NRFI between the two best teams at it cannot be ignored.
Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: -120
Generally, staying away from the Cubs when it comes to the NRFI is a good idea. But when they’re facing a proven pitcher who can get through a first inning sweat-free, it’s worth the risk. Alex Wood will be throwing for the Giants tonight, and is 9-1 to the NRFI in his last 10 starts. Despite the Cubs being a top-5 team is scoring in the first, Wood is more than capable of taking care things on his side, and I expect him to at home in this Cubs vs Giants matchup.
Alex Wood, Wicked 85mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/DtVemhDqBp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 24, 2022
On the bump for the Cubs is Justin Steele, who, despite giving up a leadoff homer to Kyle Schwarber in his last start, is 14-4 to the NRFI this season. Expect him to take care of a Giants lineup that is sitting 5th in the league in NOT scoring in the 1st. You can get -120 NRFI odds at Caesars Sportsbook Illinois today.
Best NRFI Plays – Friday, July 29th
New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Odds TBD
Looking ahead, this matchup is an absolute must-bet on Friday night. Chris Bassitt will be on the bump for the Mets, facing off against NL Cy-Young favorite Sandy Alcantara. There is no doubt in my mind that this line will be juicy, but hopefully the Mets 35% first-inning run-rate will be enough to keep this line from getting unplayable.
Sandy Alcantara 3-pitch strikeout of Giancarlo Stanton 😈🤩
Best pitcher in baseball on display pic.twitter.com/8Fus5FenOG
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) July 20, 2022
Additionally, Alcantara is 11-1 for the NRFI in his last 12 starts, with his one loss against the Mets, which may provide us with slightly more value. The Marlins will be the Marlins in this first inning and entire game, and it will come down to an unstoppable force against an immovable object that is Alcantara and the Mets lineup.
