NRFI Odds and Records For All 30 MLB Teams – Best Picks This Week (Jul 25-Jul 31)

Jul 28- 17 min read
MLB NRFI Odds and Records
  • MLB NRFI odds and records for all 30 teams
  • The Marlins and Reds have the best NRFI winning percentage
  • Read below for a full report on the best bet in baseball as we breakdown NRFI odds for all 30 MLB teams

With the second half of the 2022 MLB season well underway as teams near the 100-game mark, now feels like a perfect time to take a look at how each of the 30 teams have stacked up against the most electric bet in baseball, the NRFI. Including NRFI odds on some games this week!

As someone who prides themselves as, at the very least, an above-average No Run First Inning bettor, I’ve kept a very close eye on all things-NRFI this season, and have been able to make some money while doing it. Six outs is all it takes.

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Let’s have a look at the MLB NRFI records for all teams:

MLB NRFI Records

Team NRFI YRFI NRFI %
Miami Marlins 57 40 59%
Cincinnati Reds 56 40 58.5%
Baltimore Orioles 55 42 56.5%
San Francisco Giants 55 42 56.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 55 43 56%
Philadelphia Phillies 54 43 55.5%
Cleveland Guardians 53 43 55%
Atlanta Braves 54 45 54.5%
San Diego Padres 54 45 54.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 53 44 54.5%
Boston Red Sox 53 45 54%
New York Yankees 52 46 53%
Milwaukee Brewers 51 47 52%
Texas Rangers 50 46 52%
Houston Astros 50 48 51%
Los Angeles Dodgers 48 48 50%
Oakland Athletics 49 51 49%
Kansas City Royals 48 49 49.5%
Seattle Mariners 48 50 49%
Arizona Diamondbacks 47 50 48.5%
New York Mets 46 51 47.5%
Colorado Rockies 46 52 47%
Detroit Tigers 46 52 47%
Los Angeles Angels 45 52 46.5%
Chicago White Sox 45 52 46.5%
St. Louis Cardinals 45 53 46%
Washington Nationals 44 55 44.5%
Minnesota Twins 43 54 44.5%
Toronto Blue Jays 42 55 43.5%
Chicago Cubs 41 56 42.5%

Last updated July 26th

We start off with the overall records of every team in the 1st Inning this season so far. There is absolutely, and always will be, a strong correlation between the most successful NRFI teams and those who have poor hitters, but strong pitchers.

The Marlins are a prime example of this, as they rank 24th in runs scored but ninth in ERA, and subsequently leading the charge as the best NRFI team this season.

Individual Team Runs Scored in 1st Inning

Team No Runs Scored Scored Team NRFI %
Baltimore Orioles 81 16 83.5%
Miami Marlins 80 17 82.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 78 20 79.5%
Detroit Tigers 78 20 79.5%
San Francisco Giants 75 22 77.5%
Chicago White Sox 74 23 76.5%
Cincinnati Reds 73 23 76%
Philadelphia Phillies 73 24 75.5%
Texas Rangers 72 24 75%
Oakland Athletics 75 25 75%
San Diego Padres 74 25 74.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks 72 25 74%
Los Angeles Angels 70 27 72%
Atlanta Braves 71 28 71.5%
Seattle Mariners 70 28 71.5%
Boston Red Sox 70 28 71.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 69 28 71%
Kansas City Royals 69 28 71%
Cleveland Indians 67 29 70%
Washington Nationals 69 30 69.5%
Milwaukee Brewers 67 31 68.5%
Colorado Rockies 67 31 68.5%
St. Louis Cardinals 64 34 65.5%
Houston Astros 64 34 65.5%
New York Yankees 64 34 65.5%
New York Mets 63 34 65%
Chicago Cubs 61 36 63%
Toronto Blue Jays 61 36 63%
Minnesota Twins 60 37 62%
Los Angeles Dodgers 59 37 61.5%

Last updated July 26th

Next, we have team-specific records on scoring in the 1st Inning. It’s no surprise that this generally correlates with the MLB standings, as the teams with the worst bats are great at not scoring in the first, while being near the bottom of the league overall. We do have a few outliers here on opposite ends of the spectrum, however, most notably being the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs.

While the O’s have proven to be a reputable team this season, it seems to take them a few innings to get bats on balls, as they are dead last in scoring in the first inning. On the contrary, the Chicago Cubs, one of the worst teams in the big leagues, have managed to score in 37% of the 1st innings they have played.

Opponent Runs Scored in 1st Inning

Team Opponent Not Scoring Opponent Scoring Opponent NRFI %
Los Angeles Dodgers 77 19 20%
Cleveland Guardians 75 21 22%
Philadelphia Phillies 75 22 22.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 75 22 22.5%
New York Mets 75 22 22.5%
New York Yankees 75 23 23.5 %
Houston Astros 75 23 23.5%
San Diego Padres 75 24 24%
Milwaukee Brewers 74 24 24.5%
Seattle Mariners 73 25 25.5%
Atlanta Braves 73 26 26.5%
San Francisco Giants 71 26 27%
Chicago Cubs 70 27 28%
Kansas City Royals 70 27 28%
Minnesota Twins 70 27 28%
Cincinnati Reds 69 27 28%
St. Louis Cardinals 69 29 29.5%
Miami Marlins 68 29 30%
Toronto Blue Jays 68 29 30%
Colorado Rockies 68 30 30.5%
Boston Red Sox 68 30 30.5%
Baltimore Orioles 67 30 31%
Texas Rangers 66 30 31.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 67 31 31.5%
Los Angeles Angels 65 32 33%
Oakland Athletics 65 35 35%
Chicago White Sox 63 34 35%
Arizona Diamondbacks 63 34 35%
Washington Nationals 62 37 37.5%
Detroit Tigers 59 39 40%

Last updated July 26th

Finally, we have opponent’s NRFI records against each team. This is where we get to see how each team’s pitching staff, and even defense shakes up when it comes to playing their part in the NRFI and getting 3 outs.

Again, it’s no surprise that the worst teams in the league happen to have poor pitching, which is evident in the amount of runs allowed in the 1st. But I also enjoy using these numbers to zero in on a better pitcher on one of these lower-ranked teams, whether that be Zac Gallen and his 18-3 NRFI record for the Diamondbacks, or even the Tigers’ Michael Pineda, who hadn’t allowed a run in the first all season before his last two starts.

Now without further adieu, let’s take a look at the slate for the next few days and find a few spots that look appealing.

Best NRFI Plays – Thursday, July 28th

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds: +100

Kicking off this afternoon, we’ve got an absolute treat of a NRFI that is completely backed by the stats. The Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins face off in the final game of their 4-game series, with Graham Ashcraft on the bump for Cincinnati and Daniel Castano throwing for the Marlins. No Runs to be scored in the First Inning is currently listed at +100 on Caesars Sportsbook, and it is absolutely the play in this matchup.

Miami and Cincinnati rank 1st and 2nd overall, with the NRFI cashing in over 58% of their games. Now 3 games in, the NRFI would be a perfect 3-0 in this series had it not been for a 2-out, 2 strike hit from the Reds’ Kyle Farmer last night that plated a run.

I’m going to lean heavily on the fact that the Marlins simply cannot hit a baseball in the first inning (1 run in last 18 1st innings) and assume Ashcraft can get through the top of their order. Ashcraft is a .500 NRFI pitcher this year, however 4 of his 5 NRFI losses have come against the Brewers, Cardinals, Yankees and Mets, who are all miles ahead of these Reds.

On the other side, Castano is making just his 6th start of the season for Miami. Though it’s a small sample size, Castano is a perfect 5-0 in the NRFI this year, including shutting out the Mets twice. I believe the underexperienced pitching in this game is the reason for such high odds, but when we’re talking about 6 outs, you can never be too sure about anything.

There is no denying that the NRFI is one of the least predictable bets on the board, as one swing of the bat can change it all. But having the numbers on your side certainly never hurts, and a plus-odds NRFI between the two best teams at it cannot be ignored.

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants: -120

Generally, staying away from the Cubs when it comes to the NRFI is a good idea. But when they’re facing a proven pitcher who can get through a first inning sweat-free, it’s worth the risk. Alex Wood will be throwing for the Giants tonight, and is 9-1 to the NRFI in his last 10 starts. Despite the Cubs being a top-5 team is scoring in the first, Wood is more than capable of taking care things on his side, and I expect him to at home in this Cubs vs Giants matchup.

On the bump for the Cubs is Justin Steele, who, despite giving up a leadoff homer to Kyle Schwarber in his last start, is 14-4 to the NRFI this season. Expect him to take care of a Giants lineup that is sitting 5th in the league in NOT scoring in the 1st. You can get -120 NRFI odds at Caesars Sportsbook Illinois today.

Best NRFI Plays – Friday, July 29th

New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Odds TBD

Looking ahead, this matchup is an absolute must-bet on Friday night. Chris Bassitt will be on the bump for the Mets, facing off against NL Cy-Young favorite Sandy Alcantara. There is no doubt in my mind that this line will be juicy, but hopefully the Mets 35% first-inning run-rate will be enough to keep this line from getting unplayable.

Additionally, Alcantara is 11-1 for the NRFI in his last 12 starts, with his one loss against the Mets, which may provide us with slightly more value. The Marlins will be the Marlins in this first inning and entire game, and it will come down to an unstoppable force against an immovable object that is Alcantara and the Mets lineup.

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