Best and Worst NBA Futures: Early Edition

To see our best and worst NHL preseason futures, check out my previous article here.

The NBA is slated to begin, and while everyone except Kyrie and Ben is excited to get the year started and compete for the Larry O’B, we have our eyes set on a different type of gold. Being able to guess who will win each award heading into the season is a hot topic for all those talking-head, hot-take machines, we prefer to pick apart the odds the experts set for everyone to maximize your winnings, and get the best bang for your buck heading into the 2021/22 season.

NBA Coach of the Year

What to look for

• First year coaches looking to set a dysfunctional organization straight [ex. Tom Thibodeau, 2021; Scott Brooks, 2010]
• Long standing coaches with their best team ever, especially if in a “smaller market” [ex. Dwane Casey, 2018; Gregg Popovich, 2014]
• Any team that should clearly be the best team during the regular season [ex. Steve Kerr, 2016; Mike Budenholzer, 2019 (also fits in the first category)]

What to avoid

• Teams clearly not making the playoffs, no matter how “improved” they might be
• Teams that are probably going to be worse than last season
• Whoever won last year (has literally never been done)

Best Bets

Steve Nash +900
Billy Donovan +1100
Nate McMillan +1400
Michael Malone +1400

Worst Bets

Quin Snyder +1100
Ime Udoka +1400
Tom Thibodeau +2200
Doc Rivers +2500
Chauncey Billups +2800
Any of Jamahl Mosley, JB Bickerstaff, Mark Daigneault, or Luke Walton at any odds

Regular Season Most Valuable Player

What to look for

• Be the consensus best player on the best regular season team [ex. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2019/2020; Jame Harden, 2018; Steph Curry, 2015]
• Franchise level player almost single handedly leading his team to a higher seed than expected [ex. Nikola Jokic, 2021; Russell Westbrook ,2017]

What to avoid

• Very good players who are not the best on their team
• Players on non-playoff teams
• Anyone who is projected to play less than 75% of the season, longevity matters (in fact, look at great players on teams with injuries)

Best Bets

Stephen Curry +550
Giannis Antetokounmpo +650
Jayson Tatum +2200
Paul George +2500

Worst Bets

LeBron James +1400
Trae Young +2000
Karl-Anthony Towns +8000
Any of Zion Williamson, Kawhi Leonard, Klay Thompson, or Kyrie Irving at any odds (despite how dumb some of these sound, I’ve seen Zion listed at under +2000)
Alex Caruso +50000 (please don’t bet on Caruso to win the MVP)

NBA Defensive Player of the Year

What to look for

• Big men who are among the leaders in boards (especially D-reb) and blocks, with low turnovers [ex. Rudy Gobert, 2021/2019/2018]
• Wings who are positionally sound, team players, and have a rep for defensive efficiency [ex. Kawhi Leonard, 2015/2016]

What to avoid

• Any primarily front-court players
• Players who are known as facilitators and may have a lot of turnovers

Best Bets

Anthony Davis +550
Giannis Antetokounmpo +650
Joel Embiid +800
Bam Adebayo +1400

Worst Bets

Ben Simmons +550
Matisse Thybulle +200
Jrue Holiday +2200

NBA Rookie of the Year

What to look for

• Be a top 10 pick from last year OR the year prior’s draft class, a clear starter, and in your first NBA season (duh) [All but 2 winners since 1987]
• Be a guard or wing with a high level of offensive efficiency [ex. 11 of the last 13 winners]
• Big men who can average a double-double [ex. Karl-Anthony Towns, 2016; Blake Griffin, 2011 (the only two who didn’t fit in the previous category)]

What to avoid

• Players who won’t be given the chance to start most of the season
• Bigs relied on more for defensive/positioning than offence
• Players on teams that are already really good and their contributions won’ be as noticeable

Best Bets

Jalen Green +250
Cade Cunningham +250
Josh Giddey +1800

Worst Bets

Evan Mobley +900
Alperen Sengun +1600

Most Improved Player

What to look for

• Good, young players (typically under 25) who are thrusted into a larger role and excel, demonstrating their ability to lead an offence [ex. This is essentially the only criteria]

What to avoid

• Anyone who has won this award before
• Anyone who will be over the age of 27 by season’s end
• Anyone who will be guaranteed to not start or will be up for the 6th man of the year

Best Bets

Michael Porter Jr. +900
Jordan Poole +1000
OG Anunoby +1400
Jaren Jackson Jr. +1600
Keldon Johnson +4000
Marvin Bagley III +10000

Worst Bets

Zion Williamson +1200
Tyler Herro +2500
Chris Boucher +2500
Ben Simmons +2800

Our weekly fantasy basketball contests are now live. Use Promo Code “NBA10” for a free $10 entry into our Contest of the Week coming this Friday (one-time use of code only). Our 7-day contests will be available to play everyday throughout the season.