How to Bet the Sweet Sixteen in March Madness

We made it, the NCAA Tournament is back after 3 long days without it. The two best games of the Sweet Sixteen come on Thursday night. Arizona and Houston will be a fascinating battle and Coach K’s young Blue Devils get the nation’s #1 defense in Texas Tech. Sure the volume of games each day has been cut down but I think we’re in for our first buzzer beater of the tournament.

Speaking of the schedule though, it’s unfair that these games aren’t being spread out throughout the day. These games need all of my attention individually and why can’t I have something to watch at work? I don’t know who to blame but I want to let them know I’m not happy.

We closed out last weekend horrifically, going 2-6 on Sunday. Michigan State and Ohio State not covering were some of the worst feelings you can have when betting on sports. Anyways, that moves the record for the tournament to 29-23 or 55.8%. That means we are still in the green while betting EVERY SINGLE GAME.

This is the most I’ve loved the board all tournament, let’s cash those damn tickets.

Arkansas vs Gonzaga -9.5 | O/U 154.5

It’s the end of the line for this Arkansas Razorbacks team. After shooting just 28% in a 53-48 win in the round of 32, JD Notae and the Razorbacks run into the best offense in college basketball. The length of Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren is going to be too much for Jaylin Williams to answer to. Arkansas is so reliant on getting to the free throw line, their 22 free throw points are the only reason they advanced on Saturday. The Zags are one of the best teams in the country at keeping teams from scoring at the line. While they’re also the #1 2-pt defense in the country. This leaves the 3-pt line that the Razorbacks seldom go to and when they do they’re horribly inefficient. This is a big time fade of Arkansas for me.

GONZAGA -9.5

Michigan vs Villanova -4.5 | O/U 134.5

The Wolverines actually match up quite well with Villanova here. Offensively the Wolverines like to attack inside and are really efficient doing so, shooting 53.3% from 2-pt range. The Wildcats prefer their opponents to try to score from the outside as they’ve got a top-40 3-pt defense. On the other side of the court Michigan has struggled defending from 2-pt range but they go up against a Villanova squad led by Collin Gillespie that takes 46.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Although the Wolverines don’t pressure the ball as much as you’d like against the Wildcats elite guard play, with Hunter Dickinson around the rim they’ll get those extra possessions from the offensive glass.

MICHIGAN +4.5

Duke vs Texas Tech -1.5 | O/U 137.5

This seems like a nightmare scenario for Coach K and the Blue Devils. Their youth and lack of tournament experience can be a major detriment against the top defense in the country. The Red Raiders are tenacious defensively and really wear their opponents out, we saw it against Notre Dame last weekend late in the second half. The biggest question mark is how efficient Texas Tech will be on the offensive side of the ball. But Duke has struggled to defend the offensive glass, which can be back breaking against this Red Raiders team. Their 33.1% offensive rebounding percentage is top-40 in the nation. It should be exciting to see Paolo Banchero go up against this defense but I think they fall short.

TEXAS TECH -1.5

Houston vs Arizona -1.5 | O/U 145.5

The recipe was given to us on Sunday night on how to take down the Wildcats. TCU won the rebounding battle, more specifically on the offensive glass and thus earned second chance points. Now the Horned Frogs are not nearly efficient enough offensively but Houston can certainly look to replicate their success. The Cougars are the #3 ranked team in offensive rebounding percentage, vastly more efficient from the field and can challenge Arizona’s elite interior defense. They’ve got an extremely high level defense of their own as well, just look at their 17.1% block percentage and their #1 ranked opponent field goal percentage at 37.5%. The Josh Carleton vs Azuolas Tubelis matchup should be fascinating.

HOUSTON +1.5

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