NCAA Tournament Betting: Sweet 16 (Friday)

Mar 25- 8 min read

How to Bet the Sweet Sixteen in March Madness

Well that absolutely stunk out loud. I am a gigantic loser who can’t win a bet right now. After going 1-3 on Thursday night in the NCAA Tournament that moves the tournament long record to 30-26. Not great. I think I’m more discouraged today then Sunday because I really liked the board yesterday. But another day, another dollar, you don’t have to love the board to make money.

As always, I’ll be betting every single game of this tournament so be sure to check back each and every morning for the latest plays and updates. Let’s get into the final four games of the Sweet Sixteen.

Saint Peter’s vs Purdue -13 | O/U 133.5

I feel like I’ve seen this movie so many times in this tournament. I see one team as clearly superior to the other in some very key categories and it just goes the complete opposite direction. It happened with Miami over Auburn, Iowa State over Wisconsin and Arkansas over Gonzaga. So do I fade myself or believe things will regress to the mean? This Saint Peter’s offense is quite poor, they’re too reliant on getting to the free throw line. 21.6% of their points come from the free throw line, while the Boilermakers are 6th in the country in opponent free throw attempts. Meanwhile the Peacocks put their opponents on the line a ridiculous amount and that’s been an important part of Purdue’s offensive formula. I’m thinking we finally hit on one of these sizeable favorites here.

PURDUE -13

Providence vs Kansas -6.5 | O/U 141.5

The Friars took care of some trendy underdogs in their first two games of the tournament. Having seen them live in both of those games, they’ve garnered much more of my respect. The Jayhawks offense comes from 2-point range and I think Nate Watson and the Providence interior defense can give Kansas some problems. What worries me is those inevitable dry spells that always seems to come up at some point in the game for them. I’m going to look at the total here considering Providence’s pace. The Friars rank 301st offensively to the Jayhawks 43rd. It’s much easier to dictate a slow pace then a fast one and Providence will look to limit possessions.

UNDER 141.5

North Carolina vs UCLA -2.5 | O/U 141.5

We’ve got another game between two teams with complete opposite paces of play, which makes this game difficult to handicap. UNC likes to run the floor while UCLA likes to slow down the game to play very meticulously. I don’t see the Tar Heels being able to carry the pace here considering how well the Bruins take care of the ball. Especially when you consider UNC’s complete inability to force turnovers (347th). The Tar Heels are playing out of their minds right now, Brady Manek has been scorching hot. This veteran, experience Bruins team may be the ones to slow them down. They’ve got a shot creator like Johnny Juzang to get that done.

UCLA -2.5

Iowa State vs Miami -3.5 | O/U 133.5

I don’t know what to do with these two teams, I think they are both hot frauds. But guard play has always been a key factor for tournament success and Kameron McGusty and Izaiah Brockington are excellent. The Cyclones managed to win the turnover battle last weekend against a Wisconsin team that is one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball. It’s a similar task here against Miami who ranks 6th in turnover rate. What I’ve always mentioned as a problem when detailing the Hurricanes is their lack of ability to contest shots. Opponents are shooting 53.2% from 2-pt and 34.9% from 3-pt. A potential efficiency boost for the Iowa State offense would be game changing.

IOWA STATE +3.5

 

Check out our college page to stay up to date on March Madness and all of college basketball. Follow along as we bet each and every game of the NCAA Tournament!

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