Final Four Betting: Duke vs UNC & Kansas vs Villanova

Mar 31- 8 min read

Best Bets For Duke vs UNC & Kansas vs Villanova

The final weekend of college basketball has arrived and the blue bloods are here to put together two excellent matchups. Now even though we’ve got blue bloods it doesn’t mean this was a chalky edition of March Madness. Many people had Duke and UNC falling before the Final Four.

There is plenty to get excited about on Saturday, starting with Bill Self and Jay Wright making their 4th and 5th appearances in the Final Four. The cherry on top to the final Saturday of NCAA basketball is Duke trying to avenge their loss to UNC in Mike Krzyzewski’s last game at Cameroon Indoor.

Let’s take a look at the betting lines and find the best bets to make to score you some cash!

 

Villanova vs Kansas -4.5 | O/U 132.5

The overarching story here is how the Wildcats survive in life without Justin Moore, especially considering they rank 323rd in the country in bench minutes. They’ll need Chris Arcidiacono in an expanded role or even Bryan Antoine. Neither of which have played more than 11 minutes in the NCAA Tournament.

We’ve got two very different offenses in this game, Villanova ranks 351st in 2-pt scoring while Kansas is getting 55% of their points on the interior. The Jayhawks have done a good job defending the three ball this season, opponents are shooting just 29.6% against them. Guarding David McCormack could be a problem for the Wildcats though as their biggest defender stands at 6-foot-7.

These two teams are very different in terms of pace as well, Villanova is one of the slowest teams in the country in average offensive possession time. While Kansas ranks in the top-40 in pace. Whoever controls the speed in which this game is played will be the one that ends up in the National Championship.

Villanova is going to try to keep this game in check at a pace they’re comfortable with. If they’re making their three’s against a Kansas team that is going to score it’s majority of points from 2 then this should be really tight. But the Wildcats have struggled defending the offensive glass, their opponent has had more offensive rebounds in the last 3 games of the tournament. I’m not sure they can get away with it here.

KANSAS -4.5

North Carolina vs Duke -4.5 | O/U 151.5

We have a near 20-point difference on the total in the second game of the Final Four. Both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils aren’t ones to pressure the ball defensively, they both rank outside the top-300 in turnover percentage on defense. This game should flow pretty smoothly, so it makes sense to see the point total so high.

North Carolina is undoubtedly the hottest team in college basketball and they’re getting production from so many different places. Whether it’s Caleb Love, Brady Manek, Armando Bacot, the list goes on. They’ve been forcing their opponents to play at a faster pace then they’re comfortable with and have been killing them on the offensive glass.

Mark Williams is going to be the difference for Duke in my mind. He is the Blue Devils recipe to limiting UNC’s rebounding success and defending around the rim. Other then the Tar Heels round of 32 win over Baylor, they haven’t shot above 46% from the field in the tournament. Those second chance opportunities off the glass have been vital.

Duke has KenPom’s #1 ranked offense in adjusted efficiency, shooting 56.3% from 2-pt range. But the Tar Heels have a bevvy of options to guard Paolo Banchero and match his length. In what could be one of the most anticipated Final Four games in recent memory, perhaps the nerves are a factor here.

UNDER 151.5

 

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