2022 US Open Odds, Preview & Betting Picks
There is no better time for one of golf’s major tournament events then right now. With the LIV Tour kicking off it’s first event last week and one of golf’s favorite players, Rory McIlroy coming off an exciting win at the Canadian Open. The best players in the world come together at the Country Club at Brookline in Massachusetts. The 2022 US Open odds board is packed with talent and storylines, let’s get into it.
Brookline doesn’t provide the usual test that USGA governed events do. Make no mistake the rough will be thick and the fescue will be high but it’s on average more than 350 yards shorter then the two previous US Open sites. The par-70 track measures out at 7,264 yards with just two par-5’s, four par-3’s and 12 par’4’s. We’ll get into what to look for in a winner, let’s take a look at the 2022 US Open odds first.
2022 US Open Odds
You can find the full odds board at BetMGM
Dustin Johnson is sure to deal with his fair share of off course adversity as he returns to US soil after an 8th place finish in London at the inaugural LIV Golf event. You can back DJ to finish inside of the top-20 at BetMGM Ontario with odds of +140.
New York sports betting sites seem to be in consensus that Rory McIlroy is the betting favorite. He’s got two wins so far this season and has a 2nd and 8th place finish at the first two majors of the season. Not only is he coming into the 2022 US Open with a win last week but he’s riding five straight top-20 finishes.
What You Need to Know About the Country Club at Brookline
Even though the golf course isn’t going to overwhelm the field with length but accuracy off the tee and in your approach is going to be vital. The greens are the smallest for a major championship course not named Pebble Beach. When you take a look at the golf course this week before the tournament kicks off you’ll see some lengthy rough and fescue just a few inches from the fairway.
We touched on some of course breakdown earlier it doesn’t paint the whole picture. Even though there isn’t overall length, the par-4’s are going to demand well executed long iron play. Eight of the par-4’s measure longer then 450-yards with three at 499 or more. The difference here from a course like WInged Foot, is that you won’t be able to bomb and gouge, there is plenty of hazards, tree lines and fescue not too far from the fairway.
There are a few key stats I’m going to be looking at when trying to identify an outright winner, top-20 finish or any wager I’m looking to place. The first is proximity to the hole, we could look just at strokes gained approach but this more nuanced stat is best with such small greens to work with. The next I’m looking at is total driving, with some added value put on driving accuracy. Bogey avoidance is also going to be key in these difficult conditions.
There will be rough. pic.twitter.com/C7UFUY2Ph2
— No Laying Up (@NoLayingUp) June 13, 2022
US Open Betting Picks
When placing your US Open bets this week be sure to shop around for the prices. I’ll be sharing the odds for these wagers and where I was able to get them in at. If you’re looking to sign-up at one of these books check out the best New York sports betting promo codes!
Let’s take some of these stats and find some players that best fit the mold this week at the Country Club at Brookline. We’ll focus on their outright US Open odds and also look at other markets with shorter odds that may be worth a larger wager.
Collin Morikawa (+3000 at PointsBet)
There likely isn’t a better player in the field that statistically fits this golf course then Collin Morikawa. The former PGA and Open Champion is looking to bounce back after poor showings at the PGA Championship and Memorial Tournament in the last month. But there is no reason to expect his struggles to continue here.
Morikawa is a fantastic driver of the golf ball, he’s 20th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee. He ranks 83rd in driving distance which is above average but is one of the best in driving accuracy percentage at 67.1%. When he’s finding those fairways, he’s dialled in with his approach play. He’s 5th on Tour in proximity to the hole and on approaches from 150-175 yards he’s 4th in proximity.
Like any player in this field, there are deficiencies. If Morikawa wins this tournament and gets himself one step closer to a career grand slam it’s because his putter heated up. His rank of 127th in strokes gained putting is something I can live with considering how difficult the conditions will be around the greens and Morikawa is elite at keeping himself out of trouble.
I hurried to bet him at the +3000 number at PointsBet Ontario as they were the only sportsbook I could find offering these odds. They also are offering Morikawa to finish in the top-10 at +245, I’ll be adding that to my card as well. Sign-up at PointsBet by clicking the banner below or use promo code ‘OWNERSBOX’ when you sign up!
Shane Lowry (+3300 at BetMGM)
The 35 year-old seems to be playing some of the best golf of his career right now. Highlighted by a T3 finish at the Masters back in April and seven top-25 finishes in his last ten starts. Lowry is another player that has the all around game that fits Brookline quite well.
What really excites me about Lowry’s chances in this tournament is his approach game, he’s first on tour in proximity to the hole this season. But what’s even better is his ability to score on lengthy par-4’s. He’s elite from 175-200 yards out, which is where he’ll find himself on the majority of these par-4’s. Unlike Morikawa he’s proven to be a great putter as well, ranking 24th on Tour in strokes gained putting.
We’ve talked about the way the USGA likes to punish errant shots but Lowry can avoid those crooked numbers as he ranks 3rd in bogey avoidance this season. But even his play off the tee tells us he should avoid trouble as he ranks 43rd in strokes gained off the tee this season. He’s also the second best scrambler in the world in 2022.
Getting Lowry at +3300 is a virtual must bet and I’ll happily add in a top-20 finish at plus money. BetMGM is paying +120 on wagers backing Lowry to finish within the top-20 players in the field this week.
Seamus Power (+10000 at BetMGM)
We can’t put together a US Open betting card without finding ourselves a darkhorse or longshot. I’m going with another Irishman in Power as he’s another player that avoids big mistakes. He’s top-3 in both bogey avoidance and bogey average. Paring that with 4.2 birdies per round makes for an intriguing play this week.
Power does enough off the tee, he’s in the top 25% in both strokes gained off the tee and driving accuracy this season. While he’s not attack flagsticks in terms of proximity to the hole but he’s 9th in greens in regulation percentage at nearly 70%. His putter takes him over the top an elevates his scoring, he’s 32nd in strokes gained putting and 34th in birdie or better conversion percentage.
Scrambling is required and at a high efficiency at the Club at Brookline and Power fits the bill at 17th on Tour in the category. Out of the rough he’s top-25 in scrambling, which will be crucial in these conditions. Some of the scrambling can be credited to his putter but he’s also been able to get himself close to the flagstick in up and down opportunities.
With Power being at long odds this week, he’s certainly worth a flyer to be the outright winner. But what has peaked my interest the most is his top-40 price at +110 odds at BetMGM. He’s finished inside the top-30 in both of his major appearances this season.