Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 Odds and Pick – New York Favored at Home in NHL Playoff Odds

Jun 8- 8 min read
Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 odds and pick

Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 Odds and Pick

Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 odds and pick

The home team has been superior in every NHL Playoff series the Rangers have been a part of this postseason. However, the NHL betting lines continue to back the Bolts. New York online sports betting markets list the road team as -130 favorites in the Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 odds. Puck drop at Game 5 is set on June 9th, 2022 for 8 PM EST at Madison Square Garden.

The home team is now 4-0 in this series, which has been a consistent trend in New York’s case. The Rangers are 8-1 at home this postseason and 2-7 on the road.

Let’s take a look at the Lightning vs Rangers odds at BetMGM as we head into Game 5 with the Eastern Conference Final knotted at 2-2.

Rangers vs Lightning Game 5 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Tampa Bay Lightning -130 -1.5 (+200) Over 5.5 (+115)
New York Rangers +110 +1.5 (-250) Under 5.5 (-140)

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM app

New York Listed as Home Dogs in Thursday NHL Odds

New York are 2-2 straight up, but 3-1 against the spread in this Lightning vs Rangers series. In Game 4, the Lightning dominated from start to finish. The box score was misleading because even though the Rangers outshot the Lightning, Tampa created better scoring chances.

The Lightning posted an Expected Goals rate of 4.37, while the Rangers clocked in at 3.64 when the final whistle was blown. However, this was the first time all series where the Rangers posted more high danger chances than the Lightning by a margin of one (3:2).

Although Tampa has not been as bad as New York on the road, they still haven’t posted great numbers. The Lightning are 4-4 on the road this postseason but are 1-5 in their last six as a road favorite.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are 8-1 at home and 5-1 in their last six as a home underdog. Mika Zibanejad has been stellar at MSG throughout the 2022 NHL Playoffs. The Swede has six goals and 12 points in nine home games. In the Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, he’s listed at +190 to score.

Bad Spot as Road Favorites

Tampa has not been good as a road favorite this postseason. Not only is their record mediocre, but they’re averaging 2.5 goals per game away from Amalie Arena with a -4 goal differential. At home, they have a +12 goal differential and are averaging 3.9 goals per game.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled on the road as well. Meanwhile, Igor Shesterkin has been an absolute wall at home:

Lightning vs Rangers Goalie Matchup

Goalie Record SV% GAA
Andrei Vasilevskiy on Road 4-4 .906 3.03
Igor Shesterkin at Home 8-1 .948 2.04

 

Obviously, Igor has the upper hand being back at MSG. However, one thing that’s interesting to note is that the Rangers allow way more shots on goal at home compared to the road. Shesterkin has faced 382 shots at home compared to 281 shots on the road. Could that bubble burst in the Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 matchup?

One positive that the Lightning can look at going on the road is their powerplay. They’ve converted at a 28.1% rate on the man advantage on the road compared to 18.5% back at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 Pick and Prediction

I’m going to ride the home team trend and take New York at +110 to win in the Lightning vs Rangers Game 5 odds. I can’t ignore Igor’s numbers at MSG.

Here are a few trends that I’m backing the Rangers with this in Game 5:

  • Lightning are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road favorite
  • Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 as a home underdog
  • Lightning are 0-4 in their last trips to MSG

BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetRivers are offering NHL odds for the playoffs. The total is tricky, but I think the value lies with the over. However, the Rangers team total could get an interesting look.

Picks: Rangers ML (+110) 1 unit, Zibanejad to Score (+190) 0.5 units

BetRivers New York

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