Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 Odds and Pick – Toronto Favored to Break the Curse in NHL Playoff Odds

May 14- 9 min read
Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 odds

Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 Odds, Pick, and Prediction

Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 odds

The Toronto Maple Leafs are headed to yet another Game 7 playoff game. In the last four attempts, they couldn’t come away with a victory. However, oddsmakers believe 2022 is their year. Toronto is listed as -124 moneyline favorites in the Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 odds at BetRivers Ontario. The NHL Playoff elimination game is set for Saturday, May 14, 2022, at Scotiabank Arena, with puck drop at 7 PM EST.

Let’s take a look at the Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 odds as we make our best bet on will move on in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 Odds

Team Moneyline Puckline Total
Tampa Bay Lightning +107  +1.5 (-235) O 6.5 (-113)
Toronto Maple Leafs -124 -1.5 (+190) U 6.5 (-106)

      Odds are courtesy of BetRivers app

Ontario sports betting markets made the odds eerily similar to Game 5. Toronto are bigger favorites by a very small margin in Game 7, but interestingly enough the under is being offered at a worse line than Game 5. Considering the last five games in this series have gone over, the total odds seem a little fishy.

New York sports bettors can get the same odds at BetRivers NY.

NHL Playoff Odds Favor Toronto Breaking Postseason Curse

As every hockey fan knows, the Toronto Maple Leafs have not won an NHL Playoff series since 2004. That was the last time they won a Game 7 as well. Toronto beat Ottawa 4-1 in Game 7 to advance past the first round.

Since then, it’s been three heartbreaking losses to the Bruins and one loss last year to the Canadiens.

Recent Toronto Maple Leafs Game 7 Playoff History

Date Matchup
Monday, May 31, 2021 Canadiens 3 Leafs 1
Tuesday, April 23, 2019 Leafs 1 Bruins 5
Wednesday, April 25, 2018 Leafs 4 Bruins 7
Monday, May 13, 2013 Leafs 4 Bruins 5
Tuesday, April 20, 2004 Senators 1 Leafs 4

Toronto crawled back against Tampa Bay in Game 6, but to be honest, Toronto was the team in charge. They only had a lower expected goals rate by 0.43. The difference maker, like it has been this whole NHL Playoff series, was the goaltending.

Jack Campbell owned a -0.57 Goals Saved Above Expected rate. However, as we saw in Lighting vs Leafs Game 5, he’s been able to bounce back, especially at home.

Tampa Bay Running Out of Gas?

Yes, Tampa Bay has won back-to-back Stanley Cups, but has their adversity been tested to this degree over the last two years? I don’t think so.

This will only be the fifth Game 7 the Lightning are playing in since 2015. In those four other games in that span, they are 2-2 straight up. More to that, they’ve only won two Game 7’s away from home since 2004 and are 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog. So, safe to say this isn’t the greatest spot to take Tampa in the Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 odds.

Vasilevskiy had a great performance in Game 6 to keep the Bolts in it. He’ll need another inspired performance in the Lightning vs Leafs Game 7.

All bettors know Vasilevskiy’s stats after a playoff loss, but the Lightning are 0-4 after their last four wins. Not to mention, Bolts starting netminder has a 0.865 SV% and 4.04 GAA at Scotiabank Arena in this Atlantic Division series.

Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 Odds & Pick

I don’t know how there’s a quantitative way to validate it, but the energy is different about this Leafs team. We haven’t seen the lackadaisical effort that we saw in the Montreal series near the end of elimination last year, they continue to push and fight. And I mean come on, 18 years is long enough right?

This series has now gone over the total in five straight. I expect some regression here as this NHL Playoff series continues to get more and more demanding for both sides.

I think both these teams are tired, especially Tampa Bay. This team has gone through essentially back-to-back 90+ game seasons the last two years in winning the Stanley Cup twice. These games are grinded out and tend to be much low-scoring for that reason. The last 10 NHL Playoff Game 7’s are 7-3 to the under.

I’ll take the Leafs to break the curse at -124 and the under at -106 in the Lightning vs Leafs Game 7 odds. These odds are also available at BetMGM Ontario, Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, and other online sportsbooks.

Picks: Leafs ML (-124) 1 unit, Under 6.5 (-106) 1 unit at BetRivers Ontario

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