Gambling With Gange: NFL Week 18

Alright let’s cut to the chase… Yes, I went 0-5 last week and lost 6 units. It was truly a miserable Sunday and I’m very sorry if anyone decided that this week was a good week to tail my picks.

Having said that, I must share a key fact that I believe will exonerate me. Last Thursday, I tested positive for COVID-19 for the first time. The NFL has had rules in place over the past 2 seasons stating that if you are infected with the virus, then you are not allowed to play in the game. So if Kirk Cousins isn’t allowed to play in the game because he had COVID, then why should I be allowed to make picks for the games?! Just something that everyone should be aware of.

Despite what I believe is a good reason to eliminate Week 17 from my personal record, I will still count them because that’s just the kind of honorable guy I am. Not all heroes wear capes!

Week 17 Record: 0-5, -6 units*** (COVID)

Season Record: 51-60-4, -8.31 units

I’m officially COVID free and ready to salvage the regular season with the best gambling performance of my life.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 (-110) vs Denver Broncos (1 unit)

The Chiefs were in the drivers seat heading into last week for the 1 seed in the AFC until Joe Burrow and the Bengals upset them, pushing them behind the Titans and into the 2 spot. The Chiefs still have a chance to finish atop the AFC with a win and a Titans loss so I think they come into this game motivated and beat up against a Broncos team with nothing to play for. The Broncos top 2 cornerbacks both won’t be playing in this one, which makes me believe that the high powered Chiefs offense will cruise to an easy win to end the regular season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos UNDER 45 (1 unit)

I’ve been betting the under in the Broncos games since I realized how often it was hitting and even though it lost last week, I’m blindly betting it again. Their unders are now 12-4 on the year so I’m wrapping up the regular season by taking it again and hoping for the best.

Tennessee Titans -10 (-110) vs Houston Texans (1 unit)

I think I can speak for all of us in saying how shocked we are that the Titans are about to clinch the top seed in the AFC. Entering the year it seemed like it would be a battle between the Chiefs and Bills for that spot but the Titans have gotten the job done in 2021. I think they seal the deal against a bad Texans team with a blowout win. With a rested Derrick Henry coming off IR right in time for the playoffs, the Titans are legit Super Bowl contenders that should have everyone in the AFC worried.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 (-110) vs Baltimore Ravens (1 unit)

Barring something crazy happening, this will be the final game of the season for both of these AFC North teams. It will also be the last game of Big Ben’s career. While I’m not a fan of Big Ben as a player anymore, I think the Steelers defense does enough to keep this game within 6 points at a minimum. It seems like these 2 always play each other tough and I’m expecting nothing different this Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 (-110) vs Carolina Panthers (1 unit)

The Bucs have been the talk of the NFL this week given the craziness surrounding Antonio Brown quitting in the middle of last week’s win against the Jets. If this was going on with another team, I’d think it would be a distraction, but with Tom Brady and Bruce Arians in charge, I don’t expect that to be the case. The Bucs have already clinched the division but are not locked into a seed yet so I expect them to be full go in this one. The Panthers started the year strong but have fallen off significantly and I don’t expect much from them to end the year. I’ll take Tom Brady over Sam Darnold any day.

Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110) vs Seattle Seahawks (2 units)

The Cardinals seemed to have the NFC West on lock for much of the year until they ran into a skid that included a loss against the Detroit Lions. They appeared to get back on track last week with a big win against the NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals still have a chance to win the division with a win and a Rams loss against the 49ers so they’ll be full go. This is my most confident play of the week and it’s why I’m putting 2 units on it.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-110) vs Los Angeles Chargers (1 unit)

This is the game of the week. The game that has been flexed to Sunday night. Assuming the Colts take care of business against the Jaguars, this game will determine who gets the 7th and final playoff spot in the AFC, and who is hitting the golf course. The Chargers beat the Raiders with ease back in October but that was when Jon Gruden was coaching and Henry Ruggs was the Raiders leading receiver, which feels like ages ago. I expect this to be a great game that’s decided at the end so I’m taking the Raiders with the points because of that. I also hate Dean Spanos and the Chargers more than anything so take this with a grain of salt.

7-Team Moneyline Parlay!! (+324) Bucs/Cardinals/Rams/Bills/Colts/Titans/Chiefs (1 unit)

Yup I know, a 7-team moneyline parlay is reckless and only something a rookie bettor would do. Having said that, I’m down over 8 units on the year and with this being the last week of the regular season, I thought it was worth taking a shot on this one. All 7 teams in this parlay are favorites with something to play for in Week 18. In what’s probably been the most chaotic NFL season in terms of upsets, I’d be surprised if this hits but if you separate the games, the only one that wouldn’t be considered a big upset, is if the Rams lost to the 49ers, who need a win to make the playoffs. Either way, I’m taking a shot to end the season because why not?!

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