- The Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos clash on Thursday Night Football this week
- Courtland Sutton will be a main target in the Colts vs Broncos props
- Read below for our breakdown of the best Thursday Night Football betting props
Welcome to NFL Week 5! I hope everyone had a successful Week 4 in the betting markets. We took a slight loss last Thursday, hitting on the Burrow over while taking losses on Mixon and Mostert TD. We have a great opportunity to build some positive momentum heading into the Sunday slate on Thursday night, as we have a few good spots to talk about in this upcoming matchup between the Colts and Broncos. I’m going to keep it to two Colts vs Broncos props this week, so let’s dive right in!
Be sure to shop around the industry for the best Colts vs. Broncos odds before placing your bets! We’ll be looking at DraftKings, Caesars Sportsbook, and BetMGM for the best NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football props.
Colts vs Broncos Props for TNF Week 5
|Colts vs Broncos
|Russell Wilson – o225.5 Passing Yards (-115)
|Colts vs Broncos
|Courtland Sutton – o63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds as of October 5
Colorado sports betting markets list Melvin Gordon to score a touchdown at +110. He has the best odds of any Broncos player.
TNF Week 5 Prop #1 – Russell Wilson OVER 225.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Last week, the first prop I wrote up and the first one that hit my betting card was the Burrow over for passing yards. We will be going right back to the well this week with Russell Wilson, sitting at a measly 225.5 yards as one of my favorite Colts vs Broncos props.
Denver’s last handful of quarterbacks never would have converted this drive into a touchdown.
From 1st and 30 to 2nd and 7 that is absolutely why this team needs to let Russell Wilson cook. pic.twitter.com/1SQmnApane
— 𝘾𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙧𝙤𝙣 𝙋𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙧 (@CameronParkerPO) October 3, 2022
Now I am fully aware that the Colts come into this game ranked 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 207 YPG. They’ve only played one QB I actually respect in Patrick Mahomes, surrendering 262 yards to him in that game. The other three games have been against Davis Mills, Trevor Lawrence, and Ryan Tannehill. A dusty bunch to say the least, so I’m not going to subscribe to the numbers that Indy’s pass defense is top tier.
On the other hand, Russ has not been cooking so far this year for the most part. However, with the loss of Javonte Williams for the remainder of the season, he is going to need to start soon or things will quickly fall out of reach for the 2-2 Broncos.
This number is simply too low for a QB who’s averaged 235 yards per game for his career. Combine that with losing RB1 for the year, one can safely assume the passing volume will take a slight uptick here. Look for Russ to at least try to get the wheels turning early on Thursday night.
Pick: Russell Wilson Over 225.5 Yards (-115) 1 unit
TNF Week 5 Prop #1 – Courtland Sutton OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I normally don’t aim to correlate like this, but these two bets fit the mold this week. If Russ is able to get to the 225.5 mark, I really like Sutton’s chances of surpassing his number at 63.5 as well. He is the clear #1 target for Wilson in this offense, and his ceiling has yet to be tapped into this year.
He gets a prime opportunity this week as debatably the #1 playmaker the offense has to offer with no Javonte moving forward, so if there is ever a time for Sutton to pop off, I think this week could be the one.
Courtland Sutton through 4 games
– 243/265 snaps (92% snap rate)
– 147 routes run (targeted on 24% of routes)
– 35 targets (28% target share)
– 24/343/1 receiving (14.3 YPR)
– 16.2 PPR points per game
– PPR WR11 https://t.co/c4dX46sIQS
— Dante (@InsiderDbo) October 3, 2022
Sutton is commanding 8-9 targets a week through the first 4 weeks with Wilson, and once again, this number is only going to go up with a big part of their offense going down. Could Jerry Jeudy get all the work here on Thursday?
Absolutely, and I like his number too at 50.5. That being said, Sutton will be the guy I have most of my action on in this one, simply for the fact that he is commanding more usage than Jeudy and anyone else in this WR room for Denver. If Russ is able to cook, I love Sutton to get his fair share of yards here.
As always, bet responsibly and be sure to use proper bankroll management. Good luck!
Pick: Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Yards (-115) 1 unit