- A rematch of the canceled game during week 17
- Buffalo is a 5.5-point home favorite in the Bengals vs Bills odds
- Check out the game prediction and best pick for this AFC Divisional round matchup
Just three weeks ago, the Bengals were leading by 7 points in their week 17 game versus the Bills. But was quickly forgotten when a devastating injury occurred to Damar Hamlin. The game was abruptly postponed, then canceled in the days following.
Will we see a similar tale of quick scores and explosive offenses? Let’s take a peek at the Bengals vs Bills odds at BetMGM.
Bengals vs Bills Odds
|O 49 (-110)
|U 49 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM!
Ohio sports betting markets have the Bengals near touchdown underdogs in this one. With some of the best Ohio sports betting apps listing the Bills as 6-point favorites. That’s an additional 3-3.5 points compared to their previous meeting, which wasn’t in Buffalo mind you, but still a significant difference. Especially when Cincinnati closed the season as the best team in the NFL against the spread.
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Cincinnati Bengals Betting Outlook
The Bengals enter the AFC Divisional round winning 8 straight games and are 10-1 over their last 11 games. The Bengals are HOT. When the Bengals are brought up in any sort of NFL conversation, the first thing that comes to mind is their explosive offense. Led by Joe Burrow and his plethora of athletic weapons.
That may be true, but this Bengals defense has been overlooked for way too long. They are top 5 in the league in points allowed per game, allowing only 19 points per game to opposing teams. This includes an allowed red zone touchdown percentage of only 50%. That is #5 in the NFL. Over their last three games, this has dropped significantly to only 33%.
As we saw in the 1st quarter of the Bengals vs Bills game during week 17, teams may get in the red zone, but they often end drives with field goals.
Highest graded Bengals defensive players in 2022 regular season (min. 400 snaps):
🥇 D.J. Reader – 87.3
🥈 Trey Hendrickson – 85.2
🥉 Germaine Pratt – 80.6
4⃣ Jessie Bates III – 76.5
5⃣ Mike Hilton – 73.3 pic.twitter.com/9DA3WM1yNg
— PFF CIN Bengals (@PFF_Bengals) January 10, 2023
With this being a playoff game and a chance to relive last year’s magical run, the Bengals defense is going to need to put up quite the performance versus this scary Bills offense. Holding the Bills to field goals after long drives should be considered a victory, allowing their offense to remain within striking distance is all the Bengals need to pull off the victory in Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills Betting Outlook
The Bills have been considered a top team in the AFC all season. An explosive offense led by Josh Allen and a relentless, shutdown defense, is all a team needs to make a run at a Super Bowl Championship. Bills fans have always been supportive of their Bills team but the injury to Damar Hamlin has brought a new energy and brotherhood aspect to this team.
Team’s that are one unit, not playing for personal agendas, are often the scariest. This Bills team seems to be that force this season.
As mentioned earlier, the Bengals have quite the defense, but the Bills are also a team that are among that same conversation. The Bills are #2 in the league in red zone scoring allowed and hold opponents to 18 points per game. They will be without some of their key play makers for the playoffs but have seemed to fill those holes quickly over the past few weeks.
It should be a wild game come Sunday, especially with the Bengals missing many of their key guys on the offensive line. The Bills defense will cause some big issues for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Bengals vs Bills Pick & Prediction
I will be the first one to say that rooting for no points in an NFL playoff game is not fun. But with that being said, I expect this to be a game won on the defensive line. Whichever defense can cause more issues for the opposition will win this game.
The Bengals are missing many of their starters on the offensive line. It will be hard for Burrow to find an open receiver when he doesn’t have time to work through his progressions. One of the many reasons that I love Joe Mixon to pick up a lot of dump offs out of the backfield.
I expect this to be an ugly showing for the “explosive” offenses that I referenced earlier. 49 points is way too many for a playoff game. I fully expect both defenses come to play this Sunday. Holding each other to field goals after long methodical drives is the recipe for an under.
Best Picks: Under 49 total points (-110) 1 unit, Joe Mixon OVER 3.5 receptions (-130) 1 unit