2023 AFC West Division Predictions, Odds and Best NFL Betting Pick For Each Team

Jul 19- 13 min read
AFC West Division betting preview and picks
  • AFC West betting favorites are the Kansas City Chiefs at +155
  • The Raiders have the longest odds at +700 to win the division
  • See below for a full AFC West Division betting preview, along with our best bet prediction for each team

The AFC West was the most shaken-up division this NFL offseason. Russell Wilson joined the Broncos, and Davante Adams went to Vegas to team up with Derek Carr and the Raider. Meanwhile, the Chiefs will have to make do without Tyreek Hill, and the Chargers added Khalil Mack to their already strong defense. With so much ambiguity, we run through a full AFC West Division betting preview for the 2023 NFL season.

Let’s take a look at the AFC West betting odds to win the division, conference, Super Bowl, and over/under win totals at Caesars Sportsbook.

AFC West Division Betting Odds

Team Win Total Division To Make Playoffs Super Bowl
Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 +155  -240  +1000
Denver Broncos 10.0 +250  -160  +1600
Los Angeles Chargers 10.0 +250  -170  +1600
Las Vegas Raiders 8.5 +700 +190 +4000

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Colorado online sports betting apps are listing their new and improved Denver Broncos to win at least 10 games this season. In a tough division is this realistic? Are the Chargers or Broncos the better bet to make the playoffs?

Our AFC West Division betting pick for each team are below.

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Kansas City Chiefs Betting Outlook

Although this Kansas City Chiefs team lost Tyreek Hill, I don’t think their offense will be any worse. However, their defense raises a lot of concern for me.

The biggest losses on the defensive side are Melvin Ingram III and Tyrann Mathieu. Both are vocal leaders and had really high PFF grades, especially Ingram, who was the highest graded run defender on their defense last season. They didn’t do much to fill these voids apart from drafting CB Mike McDuffie, edge rusher George Karlaftis, and safety Bryan Cook.

They had a bottom 15 graded pass rush, and they are only left with Chris Jones to create havoc. This young defense won’t be able to keep up with the high-flying offenses in the AFC West.

A lot of the defensive issues will fall onto Patrick Mahomes and this offense. With signings like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ronald Jones, the Kansas City offense shouldn’t miss Tyreek Hill too much.

In the 2021 NFL season, PFF ranked the Chiefs as the sixth-best offense. However, they had just the 13th best passing offense and 19th best running offense. Even if this offense finds a better groove this year, I can’t see the Chiefs winning 11 games in this loaded division.

I think the Chiefs’ defense is going to get toyed around with this season, especially early on. Considering KC has the hardest ranked schedule, I’ll be looking at the Chiefs’ Under 10.5 regular season wins as my best AFC West betting pick.

The Kansas online sports betting bill was passed this summer and bettors within the state should be able to lock in bets on their Chiefs this NFL season.

AFC West Betting Pick: Chiefs Under 10.5 Regular Season Wins (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

Denver Broncos Betting Outlook

This Denver Broncos team looks a whole lot different this year, and it’s mainly because of one player. Quarterback Russell Wilson was traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Broncos for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks. Quite the haul for Seattle, but they inevitably lose their franchise QB.

Russell Wilson comes from the worst-rated offensive line in Seattle to a Top 15 ranked offensive line, anchored by big man Garett Bolles. Moreover, pair Russell Wilson with Nathaniel Hackett, a pass-first and exciting young play caller. I could see Russell Wilson have his highest passing volume of his career under Hackett.

The one question mark could be their defense. They had the 27th-ranked defense according to PFF last season. Bradley Chubb played just seven games because of an injury, but he didn’t record a single sack. If he returns to form, and Patrick Surtain II continues to grow and lead the secondary, this defense could take a big leap this season.

I think this Broncos team will drastically improve, but I don’t think I can justify taking them to win this competitive division in their first year under new leadership/quarterback play. However, I do think they can squeak into a playoff spot, which is why that’ll be my AFC West betting pick for the Denver Broncos.

AFC West Betting Pick: Denver Broncos to Make the Playoffs (-160) at Caesars Sportsbook

Los Angeles Chargers Betting Outlook

This is my favorite AFC West betting pick – the Los Angeles Chargers to win the division at +250. I think this will be the best roster they have fielded in the Justin Herbert era.

Picking up Khalil Mack was an absolute power move. If Mack can put last year’s season behind him and get back to his old ways, the Chargers could have the scariest pair of pass rushers in the NFL, let alone the AFC West. Mack had a 73.0 PFF overall defensive grade last season, which was the lowest he’s received in his career by a wide margin.

The Chargers had the third-best passing offense behind the Bucs and Bengals last year. With both Brandon Staley and Justin Herbert getting another full offseason together, I think this offense will take another step in the right direction.

It’s simple really, this Chargers team has the highest rated offensive line, defensive line, and secondary in the AFC West yet they are +250 to win the division? After adding J.C. Jackson and top-notch slot corner Bryce Callahan, they easily have the best crop of defensive backs. Asante Samuel Jr. and Derwin James will continue to improve as young cornerbacks as well.

AFC West Betting Pick: Los Angeles Chargers to Win Division (+250) at Caesars Sportsbook

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Outlook

The Fresno State duo is back in Las Vegas. Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders for two draft picks in the offseason, and all of a sudden there’s another scary offense in the AFC West. Derek Carr’s got a trio of weapons with Adams, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs.

However, the fact of the matter is, that this team still has the 29th PFF ranked offensive line and secondary heading into the season. They possess two great pass rushers in Maxx Crosby and newly added Chandler Jones, but that’s it.

I love this offense and think they’ll have terrific success in the AFC West considering the number of poor secondaries. However, their defense will get carved up by Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson, all of who can be argued as top five QBs in the league.

I can’t see them going .500 in their division, which is why I’m looking at the Raiders to win less than 2.5 games in the AFC West Division. At -125, I think there’s great betting value considering how vulnerable the Raiders are defensively and their lack of depth and talent at offensive line.

AFC West Betting Pick: Las Vegas Raiders Under 2.5 Division Wins (-125)


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