2023 AFC South Division Odds, Predictions and Best NFL Betting Pick for Each Team

Jul 28- 27 min read
  • Get the 2023 AFC South odds for each team in the division
  • The Colts are short favorites to win the division at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Check out our AFC South division predictions for each team before the 2022 NFL season

The AFC South won’t be mistaken for a super competitive division. In fact, it may be one of the worst divisions in the NFL, although they did boast the number one seed in the conference last year. The Titans and Colts have significant separation in the AFC South division odds from Jacksonville and Houston.

A quick overview of this conference would tell you that none of these teams are serious Super Bowl contenders. The Colts have the best Super Bowl odds in the division at +2500, and the Texans are last in the NFL at +25000. Indianapolis decided to pull the plug on the Carson Wentz experiment in the offseason and will look to the veteran, Matt Ryan to bring more stability to their offense. The Titans, on the other hand, lost star WR A.J Brown in the offseason and will try to replace him with veteran, Robert Woods, and rookie receiver, Treylon Burks. The Jaguars are coming off a horrendous year, but with Urban Meyer gone and Doug Pederson in they should be one of the NFL’s most improved teams. Lastly, the Texans will once again be one of the worst teams in the NFL but may have got a steal at QB with Davis Mills.

Let’s take a look at the AFC South betting odds to make the playoffs, win the division, conference, Super Bowl, and over/under win totals at Caesars Sportsbook.

AFC South Division Odds

Team Win Total Win Division Win Conference To Make Playoffs Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 -115 +1300 -160 +2500
Tennessee Titans 9.5 +140 +1600 -130 +3500
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 +750 +6000 +400 +12500
Houston Texans 4.5 +4500 +12500 +1100 +25000

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook!

One interesting thing to note from the AFC South division odds is that the Jaguars even after finishing with the worst record in the NFL last season at 3-14, only sit at +400 to make the playoffs. What’s even more interesting is that their odds to win the division are a much longer +750. In this article, we’ll go through the AFC South division predictions for each team and I will highlight my best bet for every team this season. Despite Texas online sports betting not yet being legalized, BetMGM partnered with the Houston Astros this year, so Texans fans may be able to bet on their favorite team soon.

Indianapolis Colts Betting Outlook

After a late-season collapse that saw the Colts watching the playoffs from the outside looking in, they made a drastic change at QB. They brought in veteran Matt Ryan from the Falcons and traded former starting QB Carson Wentz to the Commanders. Wentz had an abysmal last game for the Colts in week 18 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. In what was a must-win game for the Colts to make the playoffs Wentz had 185 passing yards an interception and a QBR of 4.3 which prompted the Colts to make a move to Matt Ryan at QB.

The Colts are hoping that Matt Ryan can bring enough of a passing attack to this team to help out superstar running back Jonathon Taylor who single-handily carried the Colts offense last season. Taylor pretty much led the NFL in every major rushing category last season and his 1811 rush yards were 552 more than Nick Chubb who was in second place. He also led the league in TDs (18) 20+ yard runs (14) and 40+ yard runs (5).

The Colts made some big splashes on the defensive side of the ball in free agency by signing Stephon Gilmore and trading for Yannick Ngakoue. The edge duo of Ngakoue and Kwity Paye should be the best in the division this season, as I am looking for a huge breakout season from Paye. They also still have two-time All-Pro Deforest Buckner at DT and Pro Bowler Kenny Moore at corner. The guy who really lets this defense function is outside linebacker, Darius Leonard. Leonard has been first-team All-Pro three out of his four NFL seasons and had an absurd eight forced fumbles and four interceptions last season.

Indianapolis is currently the favorite to win the AFC South at -115 odds and have the seventh best odds to win the AFC at +1300. Jonathon Taylor is a player whose name is being involved in a lot of award talks before the season. He has the 16th best odds to win MVP at Caesars Sportsbook with +5000 odds, but he and Derrick Henry are tied as the first non-QBs. Taylor is also the favorite to lead the league in rushing yards at +400 odds and his rushing yards over/under are set at 1450.5.

My favorite bet for the Colts is actually for them to win the conference at +1300. This is a very bold bet, but I think they have the best value out of all AFC teams by far. Additionally, all of the other top AFC teams are in very tough divisions and have a very hard strength of schedule. The Colts actually have the sixth easiest strength of schedule and the easiest schedule in the entire AFC. So let’s go through the other divisions and see their strength of schedule.

First, the AFC West is an absolute gauntlet, that features the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders, all teams with playoff hopes in 2022. I mean just look at the QBs who are in that division Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Derek Carr. Second, the renowned AFC North, has the Super Bowl runner-up Cincinnati Bengals as well as the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers. All of these teams have made the playoffs in the last two years and this will be a difficult division to make it out of. Lastly, the AFC East is home to the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills, but also has the 6-time Super-Bowl champ, New England Patriots. The Dolphins are Jets are not jumping off the page at anyone, but they are absolutely nothing to scoff at either.

All of these teams in tough divisions will end up beating up on each other and the Colts could have an easy ride to the first seed in the conference getting to play the Texans and Jaguars four times this season.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts to Win the AFC (+1300)

Tennessee Titans Betting Outlook

At points last season the Titans looked poised to make a deep run into the playoffs as one of the AFC’s best teams. In week 10 last season the Titans had a record of 8-2 and were winners of six straight games. The story of their season last year was the loss of Derrick Henry in week eight to a Jones fracture in his right foot. Despite that, the Titans still finished with a 12-5 record which cements Mike Vrabel as one of the best coaches in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill is a solid QB and has become pretty much the definition of a game manager QB. A lot of people consider that a bad thing, but if Derrick Henry is running for 2K yards again all you need is a QB who won’t lose you games and can make good decisions. During Henry’s 2000-yard season in 2020, Tannehill put up 3819 yards, 33 TDs, and only 7 interceptions.

The Titans shocked their own fans and the NFL world on draft night when they traded away rising star WR A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles for Treylon Burks and a third-round pick. Burks has received a lot of comparisons to Brown as a big-bodied WR with great hands and tremendous YAC ability. They also signed former Rams WR, Robert Woods to try and replace some of the production they are losing with A.J Brown’s and Julio Jones’s departures.

The Titans had one of the best defenses in the NFL last season and finished with the 2nd best rushing defense in the NFL. They have one of the best defensive lines in football, anchored by All-Pro Jeffrey Simmons and Denico Autry in the middle. They also have breakout edge rusher Harold Landry who had 12 sacks and 22 QB hits last season. The star of their defense is ball-hawking safety Kevin Byard who made first-team All-Pro last season.

Betting on the Titans has been a rollercoaster over the past few seasons and that’s mostly because of Derrick Henry and what he provides the Titans whether he is on or off the field like he was the majority of last season. So because of that, my best pick for the Tennessee Titans is Derrick Henry to win comeback player of the year.

I feel like this should be somewhat of an obvious pick and I was surprised to find his odds were as high as +375 on Caesars Sportsbook. This is a guy who in his last healthy season had 2037 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. Even last season before his injury in week eight he was actually on pace for 2,135 yards and 24 touchdowns. He is supposedly back to full health after his injury and he will still be the Titan’s bell-cow back, and if he can stay healthy should have over 300 carries next season. The only other guys I seriously consider for comeback player of the year are Jameis Winston, Deshaun Watson, and Christian Mccaffrey, but I think those players will either play worse than Henry or not play enough games to qualify.

Pick: Derrick Henry to win Comeback Player of the Year (+375)

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Outlook

The Jaguars were the biggest dumpster fire in the NFL last season with Urban Meyer at the helm. I think that’s pretty much what everyone expected from Meyer, but this time around Jags management made the right move by hiring former Eagles coach and Super Bowl champion, Doug Pederson. The Jags’ entire offense last season was a mess, including their generational QB prospect, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence led the NFL in interceptions last season with 17 and his 6 yards per attempt ranked last out of qualifying QBs. There is still a lot to be optimistic about Lawrence, and he should take a huge step forward this season with improved offense weapons.

So who are those new offensive weapons? He gets his college teammate, Travis Etienne, back at RB who had 2046 yards from scrimmage and 23 TDs in his Junior season of college. They also signed Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and Brandon Scherff in the offseason. Scherff has been one of the best interior linemen in the NFL for quite some time and is a five-time Pro-Bowler.

The Jaguars also made some big moves in the offseason on defense, signing linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, DT Foley Fatukasi, and CB Darious Williams. They also used their two first-round picks on defensive players, Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd. A lot of people questioned the Jags selecting Walker with the first pick as he only had 13 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in three college seasons, so he will have a lot to prove this coming season. With new pieces on offense and defense and a new head coach who has super bowl experience, I expect the Jaguars to take a huge step forward next season.

The Jags are one of the best bets in the NFL to jump from the worst team in their division to winning it in 2022, but my favorite bet for them is the over on their win total. Right now on Caesars Sportsbook, their win total is set at 6.5 wins with +100 odds. If Urban Meyer was still the head coach for the Jags I would take the under 10 times out of 10, but he is gone, and they brought in Doug Pederson. Pederson is a huge step up from Meyer and even won a Super Bowl in 2018 with the Eagles and Nick Foles.

The Jaguars are tied for the sixth easiest schedule this upcoming season and they are in the weakest division in the AFC. With all the additions the Jaguars made in the offseason they should see a massive improvement on the field in 2022 without the distractions of the field that hampered them last season. A step in the right direction is coming for the Jaguars and I think the concludes with them finishing with at least a 7-10 record if not better.

Pick: Jaguars over 6.5 wins (+100)

Houston Texans Betting Outlook

The Texans remain in a deep rebuild. Houston has one of the lowest payrolls in the NFL, and only have two players who will make more than $6 million next season. Davis Mills will be the starter to open the season, and although most NFL fans are still out on him, I believe he could be a very solid NFL QB for a long time. The Texans’ offseason was headlined by trading disgruntled star QB Deshaun Watson for three first-round picks, a third, and a fourth.

Houston fired first-year coach, David Culley in the offseason and promoted defensive coordinator, Lovie Smith into that role. They had a ton of draft capital this year and took full advantage of that. In the first round, they selected LSU CB Derek Stingley and Texas A&M G Kenyon Green. Derek Stingley has all the traits of a lockdown corner and started all three seasons he played at LSU. In his freshman season, when LSU won the national championship he was a consensus All-American and had 6 interceptions, and 15 pass deflections which were both top five in the NCAA.

The Texans also held two second-round picks which they used on Baylor S Jalen Pitre and Alabama WR, John Metchie III. They had the worst rushing attack in the league last season and ranked last in rush yards (1422), YPC (3.4), and rushing touchdowns (8). Marlon Mack was brought in as well as draft pick Dameon Pierce in the offseason to improve that. The Texans had a league-worst -172 point differential last season, and although they will still be terrible, that should at least be improved upon.

Caserio is in the second year of a massive rebuild, but they have added expectations after firing David Culley and promoting DC Lovie Smith. Additionally, they are adding five top 75 picks from this past season. Despite this, the bet I am making on the Texans this season is for them to finish the regular season with the worst record. You can find this on Caesars Sportsbook right now with +250 odds. In my opinion, there are two teams in this argument, and Caesars’ odds back that up with the Texans as the favorite and the Falcons at second with +350 odds. Furthermore, at Caesars Sportsbook, the Texans currently have the lowest win total in the NFL, set at 4.5.

This team lacks talent on both sides of the ball and no one on the roster made the Pro-Bowl in 2021. In fact, there is only one player on the roster who has made a pro bowl and that was Laremy Tunsil in 2020. The Texans are one of the youngest teams in the NFL and two of their top three pass catchers, Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan, are 23 or younger, as is, Davis Mills. As well, three rookies, Kenyon Green, Derek Stingley, and Jalen Pitre are expected to start on day 1. The Texans will struggle mightily in 2022, but don’t worry Texans fans you will be very happy with CJ Stroud or Bryce Young.

Pick: Texans to have the worst regular season record (+250)

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