Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Odds, Preview & Betting Pick – Doncic vs Curry in 3-Point Slugfest

May 18- 10 min read
warriors vs mavericks game 1 odds

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Odds, Preview & Betting Pick – Doncic vs Curry in 3-Point Slugfest

The Western Conference Final is set, with one familiar face and one team with still a lot to prove. The Golden State Warriors made the playoffs for the first time since 2019 but are looking for their fourth championship in eight years. The Dallas Mavericks meanwhile, are playing in their first conference final of the Luka Doncic era. The Warriors vs Mavericks game 1 odds prove that experience is of value in the betting market.

The Warriors, aside from one jaw dropping blowout, have felt largely untested so far this postseason. Dallas though, has proven itself as a legitimate contender after taking down the 64-18 Suns in 7 games. Capitalized by a 33-point win in the deciding seventh game. Luka Doncic has been incredible in these NBA Playoffs, but can the Mavs contain the Warriors elite guard play?


Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Golden State Warriors -225 -5.0 (-110) O 214.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks 185 5.0 (-110) U 214.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Even though Dallas was able to close out their conference semi-final series on road, the first three games of the series against the Suns in Phoenix weren’t very competitive. The Mavs came out incredibly slow offensively and weren’t nearly engaged enough on the defensive side of the ball. New York sports betting markets list the Warriors at -1.5 (-115) in the first quarter betting odds.

Dallas will go as far as Luka Doncic can take them in this series, his points+rebounds+assists prop sits at a whopping 51.5 at Caesars Sportsbook. With the line shaded to -120 towards the over, the under (-110) was actually 5-2 in the last series against that 51.5 total.

warriors vs mavericks game 1 odds

Golden State Large Favorite in Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Odds

These aren’t the two teams many may expect them to be, with the superstar firepower of Luka Doncic and Steph Curry. Both teams were middle of the pack in offensive efficiency this season, it’s on the defensive side where they both shined. Golden State finished 1st in defensive efficiency while the Dallas finished 6th.

The Warriors are a streaky but efficient offense, to the surprise of nobody the three ball is an important part of that offense. 45.6% of their shot attempts were from 3-pt range during the regular season and it’s been a similar pace during the playoffs. Dallas can matchup defensively against the 3-pt heavy offense, it’s a big reason why they were 3-1 against the Warriors during the regular season.

What makes the Warriors so dangerous against the Mavericks is their scoring versatility and options. They have three guys that can score from behind the arc in Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson. If they cool down from three, it’s not going to maintain itself for very long. Not to mention that Golden State’s offense is much more complex than that of the Suns or Jazz.

Can the Mavericks Keep Up?

Dallas has it’s toughest task of the NBA Playoffs, sure the Suns were the best team this regular season, but Golden State presents a unique challenge. The Mavericks are averaging the most three point attempts per game in these playoffs and unlike the Suns, the Warriors can go toe to toe with them. Not to mention they were tied for first in opponent 3-pt% during the regular season.

What concerns me the most for head coach Jason Kidd’s group is if they can maintain their efficiency. The Mavericks play at one of the slowest paces in the league and neither team is interested in playing in transition. So if the possessions are limited and the three point attempts are at an extremely high volume, can they go head to head with the best three point shooter of all time?

Keeping on the topic of limited possessions though, the Warriors have had a major turnover problem in these playoffs. They committed at least 16 in every game of their series against Memphis. So if the Mavs can steal game one on the road or ultimately this series, it will come from the defensive end, where they suffocated Golden State during the regular season.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Pick

I would be surprised if both these teams aren’t deploying small ball lineups through most of game 1 and the majority of this series. Which could open the door for more interior scoring and plays at the rim. But the blueprint is going to be three point shooting, whoever is more efficient from deep will take game 1.

But high volume three point shooting doesn’t always mean a high scoring game and the Warriors vs Mavericks game 1 odds indicate that. The total sits at just 214.5 in this game. I think the under has value, as it has in seemingly every game the Dallas Mavericks play in this season. The under has hit at a 61.3% rate in games the Mavs play in this season.

Dallas is likely going to have more possession opportunities, they don’t turn the ball over and the Warriors have struggled with ball security. The Mavericks play at a methodical pace, Doncic likes to take plenty of time to evaluate the floor. Going over this total is going to be completely reliant on how efficient these teams are from three and they’re elite defenders against it.

Pick: UNDER 214.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

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