Updated 2022 NBA Championship Odds

(Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire)

The conference finals are now set after an exciting first two rounds of the 2022 NBA playoffs. The Boston Celtics face off against the Miami Heat in the East, while the Golden State Warriors matchup against a hot Dallas Mavericks team in the West. The Golden State Warriors are currently favored in the updated NBA Championship odds.

As of May 16, these are the betting odds for each of the four remaining teams in the NBA playoffs:

2022 NBA Championship Odds

Mavericks and Celtics opened with the longest NBA Championship odds when the season started, but are now as short as +650 and +220 heading into the Conference Finals.

NBA Championship Odds Over Time

Online sportsbooks post NBA Finals odds before the season tips off in the summer. These NBA odds change over time based on the team’s performance throughout the year. This is how the lines have been adjusted for the four remaining teams in the 2022 NBA playoffs at BetMGM Sportsbook:

NBA Championship odds at @BetMGM

Warriors
Open +1200
Round 1 +1000
Round 2 +300
Current +120

Celtics
Open +4000
Round 1 +750
Round 2 +375
Current +220

Heat
Open +3500
Round 1 +1000
Round 2 +500
Current +425

Mavericks
Open +3000
Round 1 +4000
Round 2 +2000
Current +650

— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) May 16, 2022

Breaking Down the NBA Championship Odds

Let’s take a look at the updated NBA Championship odds and how each team has fared in the playoffs thus far.

Golden State Warriors (+120)

The Warriors are headed to the Western Conference finals after closing out the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 6. The Warriors odds were as high as +220 to win the title throughout the series, but jumped to +120 once the Mavericks ran the Phoenix Suns off the floor in their Game 7 matchup.

Golden State faced the Mavericks four times in the regular season, losing three of those matchups. This should be taken with a grain of salt, as the Warriors were without members of their big three in all four matchups. It’s easy to understand why the Warriors are NBA betting favorites to win the title due to their experience and roster.

Boston Celtics (+220)

The Boston Celtics closed out the the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in Game 6 and Game 7 to advance to the Conference Finals. Following that beat down, the Celtics are betting favorites to win the Eastern Conference even though they do not hold home-court advantage against the Miami Heat.

In my eyes, the Boston Celtics are the most complete team in the NBA playoffs. Their defensive presence was overwhelming for the Bucks in Game 7 and should hold consistent in the series against the Heat. In their regular-season matchups, the Celtics won two of the three meetings. Even though the line has shot down dramatically, I still think there’s some value on Boston to win it all.

Miami Heat (+425)

The Miami Heat made quick work of the Atlanta Hawks in the first round before playing a more difficult series against the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round. Jimmy Butler played inspiring basketball in the series against the 76ers, leading his team offensively, averaging 27.5 points per game.

“Tobias Harris over me?” Damn Jimmy Butler 🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/Avvkjpglsq

— Kevin O'Connor (@KevinOConnorNBA) May 13, 2022

I think the fact that the Heat hold home-court advantage in this series matters, but at the end of the day, I think the Celtics are a tough matchup for this team. My issue with the Heat is that they are too reliant on Jimmy Butler on the offensive end. The Celtics will have a defensive game plan to limit Butler’s efficiency. The Heat will need to come out hot and take at least one of the two games at home to start the series.

Dallas Mavericks (+650)

At BetMGM, the Mavericks are posted as the biggest underdogs out of the four remaining teams left in the NBA Playoffs. On Sunday night, the Mavericks came out and dismantled the Phoenix Suns in their Game 7 matchup. Luka Doncic put up one of the best Game 7 performances in recent history. While the sample size is smaller, Doncic has been one of the best players in NBA history in Game 7.

Luka Doncic in elimination games:

39-9-9
46-7-14
33-11-8
35-10-4

His 38.3 PPG is the highest in NBA history. pic.twitter.com/FkO3dsDX7T

— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 16, 2022

The Mavericks have a tall task against the Golden State Warriors. That said, I think there is a ton of value on them at +650 to win it all. The Suns were considered the best team in the West for most of the year, and Mavs found a way to close the series out on the road.

Updated NBA Championship Pick

There are different ways to strategically bet on the four remaining teams in the NBA playoffs. When I look at the board, I like to focus first on the conference finals matchup before considering a team’s updated NBA championship odds. I think there’s limited value on Golden State (+120) to win it all. Yes, I believe there are grounds to call them the best team remaining, but I think there are too many things that could go wrong to validate taking them at +120. Instead, I’d take a smaller play on the Mavericks to win the 2022 NBA Championship at +650, as they have the best value of the four remaining teams.

As mentioned above, in the Eastern Conference, I think the Celtics are the best all-around team remaining. Watching that series with the Bucks, it is clear that they can limit offensive chances for the opposing team. While Giannis had a great series, the Celtics were able to limit quality shots on the offensive end for the Bucks. Considering the Heat heavily rely on Jimmy Butler, I think the Celtics will be able to contain him, and force looks elsewhere. I will be taking the Celtics at +220 to win it all at BetMGM, which is available in New York sports betting markets.

Picks: Boston Celtics (+220) 1 unit, Dallas Mavericks (+650) 0.5 units