Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Odds, Preview & Betting Pick – Boston Suprising Road Favorite at Caesars Sportsbook

Can we call this series competitive? The 2-2 score would indicate that it is, but only one of the four games have been decided by less than 10 points. Even in that 109-103 win for Miami in game 3, they led by as many as 26 points. The Celtics vs Heat game 5 odds indicate that this is going to be a low scoring, tightly contested affair, so let’s dive a little deeper.

Miami is 7-1 straight up at home during the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Their only loss came to Boston in game 2 of this series. Meanwhile the Celtics are an impressive 5-2 on the road in these playoffs, their #1 defensive rating certainly travels well. Let’s take a look at the Celtics vs Heat game 5 odds.

Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Odds

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Jimmy Butler has been largely absent in the most recent two games of the series. After leaving early with a knee injury in game 3, he was able to return for game 4 but put together one of the worst performances of his 2022 season. Shooting 2/14 from the field with just 6 points. His point total is set at 24.5 by New York sports betting markets, with the under juiced to -130.

The game total went over in the first three games of the series, but after a really flat shooting night in game 4 it’s back to what it was in the opener at 203.5. The Celtics are 8-2 to the over in their last 10, while the Heat are 7-3 to the over as well. If the three ball starts dropping more then it has in the last two games in Boston it could be an exciting night.

Miami Searching For Offensive Boost

In what was a blowout right from the opening tip, the Heat looked to a number of options to spark the offense in game 4. Five different players had double digit field goal attempts, only one of those was a starter (Jimmy Butler). If there was one bright spot from the night it was Victor Oladipo, who potted 23 points, including 4/7 from 3-point range.

– Miami Heat starters combined: 18 Points

– Victor Oladipo off the bench: 23 Points pic.twitter.com/sivDYN2FVQ

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) May 24, 2022

Miami was 5th in the NBA this season in percentage of points from three point land. Lately though, they’ve been struggling from deep. It reached a head in game 4 with Robert Williams back in the lineup for Boston, where Bam Adebayo’s 22 shot attempts in game 3 went to just 5 on Monday night. With Williams tenacious play around the rim, the Heat need impactful play from their guards on the perimeter.

Oladipo has gotten more minutes in blowouts, so it’s tough to say whether his role will increase if things are competitive. Even with his reported beef with Jimmy Butler, If Tyler Herro remains out, which seems likely, then the runway could be there for him. Kyle Lowry has been extremely quiet since returning in game 3, shooting 5/17 from the field.

Boston Road Favorite in Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Odds

The Celtics have very well proven their grit in this series, on Monday night they got to the line 38 times. Picking up a win while shooting just 24% from three in game 4. When Robert Williams is in the lineup they could very well be the NBA Championship favorite.

Boston is dealing with an injury bug of their own. Williams is listed as questionable, he’s been able to play three of four games in this series with is knee injury. The expectation is he will be ready to go. Marcus Smart also sat out for their blowout game 4 win, he rolled his ankle in game 3 and is hoping a few extra nights of rest will aid him in a return on Wednesday.

If the Celtics have to be happy with the job they’ve done defending the three point shot this series. Not to mention the job they’ve done on the glass in the last two games. A blowout win with Jaylen Brown shooting 5/20 from the field leaves me thinking there is more to give in game 5.

Celtics vs Heat Game 5 Betting Pick

Offensively both of these teams are looking for a bounce back on Wednesday night at FTX Arena. The seesaw battle could very well continue here but the Celtics look like a better team when Robert Williams is in the lineup. But Boston is clearly priced with that being the case as it’s surprising to see them as the road favorite.

I’m instead going to make my way to the player props at Caesars Sportsbook. I expect the Heat to rely on their guards to score from the perimeter, especially with the lack of open looks for Bam Adebayo inside. Kyle Lowry sticks out in a buy low opportunity, after recording the least amount of minutes he’s played in these playoffs.

In the Celtics vs Heat game 5 odds Lowry’s point total sits at 10.5, with the over at -115. If Tyler Herro is absent yet again, there is really good value on this number. If Kyle plays more than 25 minutes, you can expect to see roughly 10 shot attempts with anywhere from 4-6 of those being behind the arc. Lowry has proven to be a clutch playoff performer in his career and his team needs an offensive spark here.

Pick: Kyle Lowy OVER 10.5 points