Yankees vs Mariners Odds and Betting Pick – Cortes vs Ray

Aug 10- 9 min read
  • Yankees vs Mariners odds favor New York as road favorites
  • Series finale features Robbie Ray and Nestor Cortes on the hill
  • Read below for our Yankees vs Mariners betting pick

After a 13 inning battle on Tuesday night that ended in a 1-0 win for Seattle, the Yankees and Mariners close out their three game set on Wednesday afternoon. Gerrit Cole and Luis Castillo both put together a masterclass performance, striking out 8 and 7 respectively. With both pitching staffs tested significantly in game 2, twelve total pitchers in that game, how does this impact the Yankees vs Mariners odds on Wednesday?

Both teams will be throwing their best punch to win this series as Nestor Cortes goes for New York and Robbie Ray goes for Seattle. Cortes has made three starts since the All-Star break, allowing 4 runs across 16.1 innings. He hasn’t gotten into the 7th inning in any of those three starts, they’ll need that from him today. Ray’s season has been whirlwind, he was shelled for 15 hits and 10 earned runs in two starts against the Astros. He bounced back in his most recent start, striking out 10 across 7 innings against the Angels.

Yankees vs Mariners Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Seattle Mariners +105 +1.5 (-155) O 7.0 (-120)
New York Yankees -125 -1.5 (+130) U 7.0 (+100)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook!

The Yankees managed just three hits on Tuesday night, as a result their team total sits at 3.5 back-to-back nights at New York sports betting sites. If you want to back New York to go over that team total, you can find -125 odds at Caesars Sportsbook New York.

Mariners pitcher Robbie Ray is yet to make a start against the Yankees this season, but he did make three starts against them in his Cy Young winning year last season. In those three starts he wasn’t able to go over the 6.5 strikeouts that his prop sits at for tonight’s game at T-Mobile Park.

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Ray’s Struggles Against Quality Opponents

We touched on Ray’s struggles against the Astros this season, but it goes across all teams that are above .500 this season. Against those teams his ERA is 5.37, with a league average strikeout rate at 23.2% and a a 1.44 WHIP. Any pitcher is going to have a more difficult time getting out some of the league’s best hitters, but for Ray it sticks out.

The Yankees are one of, if not the best, team in baseball against left handed pitchers this season. They lead the league in OPS, wRC+ and SLG this season. There are a few Yankees bats that are familiar with Ray’s stuff, Aaron Judge has three hits in seven at bats against him, all three were home runs. DJ Lemahieu has also been the teams best bat against LHP, hitting .310 with and .870 OPS in 2022.

Seattle Home Underdog in Yankees vs Mariners Odds

The Mariners find themselves as home underdogs for the third straight night of this series. It’s hard to argue against it the way that Nestor Cortes has thrown this season. His opponent expected batting average is just .206 and despite not throwing at a high velocity he’s striking out opponents at a 25.8% rate.

Seattle doesn’t stick out as a team to target against left handed pitchers, they rank 20th in batting average, 14th in OBP and have the 11th highest strikeout rate. They’ve barely seen any of Nestor Cortes, with Carlos Santana having the most plate appearances with 10. As a team that’s surprised everyone as a wild-card team, the Mariners haven’t been profitable as an underdog with a 29-37 record.

Yankees vs Mariners Betting Pick

I think the Yankees are the clear play in this game here, I can’t trust Robbie Ray in this spot despite the fact he gets to play at his own park. The Yankees can send a very heavy right handed hitting lineup against him, Ray’s FIP is 4.22 against RHH this season. The Yankees are one of the hardest hitting teams in baseball and Ray is in the 21st percentile in average exit velocity this season. If he’s not getting strikeouts he’s not getting enough outs.

There are two plays I have for this game, it’s the Yankees moneyline and Robbie Ray under 6.5 strikeouts. With Ray’s K/9 at 9.0 in his starts against teams above .500 I’d expect to see him go between 5-6 innings in this one. That should keep us under that number. If you’re looking to build a same game parlay I’d recommend these two plays combined with a Judge home run. A parlay of these three pays +625 at Caesars Sportsbook today.

Pick: Yankees ML (-125) & Robbie Ray UNDER 6.5 K’s (-136)


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