- MLB NRFI Odds and Picks heading into this weekend’s slate of games
- Giants are now the best team to the NRFI this year
- Read below for a full report on the best bet in baseball as we breakdown NRFI odds for all 30 MLB teams
It’s been just a week since the first NRFI report was released, but boy have things changed. The Giants’ slide continues as their bats have gone ice cold, although it’s resulted in them climbing the NRFI rankings to take the top spot, largely thanks to a surprising 4-game NRFI sweep with the Chicago Cubs. Meanwhile, in what looked like the prime NRFI series of the year, the Marlins and Reds combined to produce 5 first-inning runs across two games.
It’s been said before and it’ll be said again, but while the NRFI is the most electric bet in the MLB, it’s also the most unpredictable.
We’ve also seen some major shakeups following the trade deadline, with teams bolstering their pitching staffs and bats, so these records could start to see some drastic changes in the near future.
With that being said, let’s check out the updated NRFI records across the league.
MLB NRFI Records
|San Francisco Giants||60||44||57.5%|
|Boston Red Sox||58||47||55%|
|San Diego Padres||57||49||54%|
|Tampa Bay Rays||55||48||53.5%|
|New York Yankees||55||50||52.5%|
|Kansas City Royals||51||52||49.5%|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||50||53||48.5%|
|St. Louis Cardinals||50||53||48.5%|
|Los Angeles Angels||48||54||47%|
|New York Mets||48||55||46.5%|
|Chicago White Sox||47||56||44.5%|
|Toronto Blue Jays||46||57||42.5%|
Last updated August 5th
The San Francisco Giants have been flat-out awful as of late, dropping 11 of their last 14 games.
A massive part of this can be attributed to a complete lack of offence, so it should come as no surprise that they have been anything but a threat on their end of the NRFI in the last week, scoring just once in seven 1st-Innings.
They only surrendered one run in the 1st during this stretch as well for an overall record of 5-2, catapulting them to the top of the NRFI board as the only team with 60 scoreless 1st innings.
Individual Team Runs Scored in 1st Inning
|Team||No Runs Scored||Scored||Team NRFI %|
|San Francisco Giants||84||23||78%|
|Chicago White Sox||78||25||76.5%|
|San Diego Padres||78||28||73.5%|
|Boston Red Sox||77||28||73.5%|
|Kansas City Royals||76||28||73%|
|Los Angeles Angels||74||29||72%|
|Tampa Bay Rays||72||31||70.5%|
|St. Louis Cardinals||69||34||67%|
|New York Mets||68||35||66%|
|New York Yankees||68||37||65%|
|Toronto Blue Jays||65||38||63%|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||62||41||60%|
Last updated August 5th
What we’re already starting to see, and continue to see here is the massive discrepancy between teams when it comes to scoring runs in the first inning. As expected, the best teams are generally the ones scoring most often in the first.
Although it’s always crucial to look at the pitching matchup, teams like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Astros and others that are loaded at the top of the lineup will always have bats more than capable of lifting one out of the park early, so we will generally continue to avoid the bottom 10 or so teams here.
Just look at Rays and Blue Jays 2-game series this past week as an example, as the Rays, despite having the 3rd best defensive NRFI ranking and 4th best ERA, surrendered a run in the 1st inning of both games due to the Jays top-heavy lineup getting started early.
Opponent Runs Scored in 1st Inning
|Team||Opponent Not Scoring||Opponent Scoring||Opponent NRFI %|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||82||21||79.5%|
|Tampa Bay Rays||80||23||77.5%|
|New York Yankees||81||24||77%|
|Cleveland Guardians||79||24||76.5 %|
|New York Mets||79||24||76.5%|
|San Diego Padres||80||26||75.5%|
|San Francisco Giants||77||27||74%|
|Toronto Blue Jays||74||29||72%|
|St. Louis Cardinals||74||29||72%|
|Kansas City Royals||75||30||71%|
|Boston Red Sox||73||32||69.5%|
|Los Angeles Angels||70||33||68%|
|Chicago White Sox||67||36||65%|
Last updated August 5th
There’s not a ton of change in the pitching department, as the bad teams continue to struggle getting out of the 1st unscathed, while the top tier teams dominate.
As we’ve seen, it will always be a fine line to walk when betting on a NRFI that includes a good overall team, as their pitching will have a good chance of getting the job done, but their bats may be the downfall.
Best NRFI Plays – Friday, August 5th
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: -115
We’ve got a phenomenal pitching duel tonight between the Braves and Mets that has NRFI written all over it. Both the Braves and Mets rank in the top 10 when it comes to opponent NRFI%, and this is certainly bolstered tonight with Ian Anderson (14-6 to the NRFI) facing off against Taijuan Walker (13-5 to the NRFI).
Most scoreless starts of at least 7 IP in the Majors this season:
1. Sandy Alcantara, MIA – 5
2-t. Taijuan Walker, NYM – 4
2-t. Corbin Burnes, MIL – 4
2-t. Zack Wheeler, PHI – 4
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) July 10, 2022
Although these are two of the best teams in baseball, I would not categorize them with the likes of the Dodgers or Yankees when it comes to unpredictable run-scoring in the first.
The Braves are middle-of-the-pack, scoring just 29% of the time in the 1st, while the Mets, who will be the more imminent threat, still only manage 1st-inning scoring 34% of the time. When we get a reasonable line of -115 at any book New York online sports betting market and two great pitchers throwing, we have to capitalize on it.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles: -110
At first glance, one may shy away from the NRFI in this game based on the pitching matchup. The Pirates’ Mitch Keller is 13-7 to the NRFI, but the Orioles’ Dean Kremer is actually 8-2, which includes holding the Yankees, Rays and White Sox all scoreless in the first.
Kremer’s surprising NRFI ability, paired with both teams ranking in the top 3 in highest NRFI% leaves me with no choice but to love this NRFI, especially at -110 odds.
If you don’t like the pitchers, you still have to consider this play solely based on the fact that these teams really struggle to score in the 1st Inning.
Best NRFI Plays – Saturday and Sunday, August 6th-7th
Saturday, August 6th: Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers
Shane McClanahan is projected to take the mound against the Tigers on Saturday night, with Garrett Hill looking to start for Detroit. The Rays, and A.L. Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan have been mowing down offences in the first inning all year. They rank 3rd in opponent NRFI %, allowing runs in just 23 or their 103 games thus far.
K-BB% leaders in July
*Among qualified SP*
1. Shohei Ohtani 37.3% 🚨
2. Max Scherzer 32.5%
3. Spencer Strider 30.5%
4. Yu Darvish 28.7%
5. Carlos Rodón 28.2%
6. Gerrit Cole 28.0%
7. Brady Singer 25.8% 👀
8. Corbin Burnes 25.6%
9. Shane McClanahan 24.6%
10. Reid Detmers 24.4% ‼️
— James Schiano (@James_Schiano) August 1, 2022
McClanahan should have no problem handling the Tigers. The Tigers’ Garrett Hill, on the other hand, is where this has potential to lose. With only 5 starts under his belt and a record of 1-3, his chances don’t look great at first glance. Hill, however, has been a beast in the 1st Inning, with a 4-1 record and avoiding any 1st-inning runs against the likes of the Blue Jays, Padres, and Guardians.
If he can get through the top of those lineups, I am confident he can handle the Rays, who are equal or much less likely to score than those aforementioned teams. Look out for this NRFI play on multiple sportsbooks across the Michigan online sports betting markets on Saturday.
Sunday, August 7th: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ve got another game on Sunday that is eerily similar to the Rays vs Tigers game on Saturday. One stud pitcher against a very subpar pitcher, with it this time being Corbin Burnes against Hunter Greene.
There isn’t much of an explanation for Burnes here, as he’s 21-2 for the NRFI on the season, and faces a Reds team that is top 10 in NRFI on offence. Hunter Greene is where the suspicion is in this game, however he’s surprisingly 9-2 in his last 11 NRFI’s. That, paired with the Brewers somewhat average offensive production in 1st Innings (no runs 68% of games) points me towards the NRFI in this game, as long as the line is reasonable and we won’t have to pay up too much.
Although Ohio online sports betting apps aren’t available just yet, they will be very soon.