NRFI Odds and Records For All 30 MLB Teams – Best Picks This Weekend (Aug 4th-Aug 7th)

Aug 5- 18 min read
NRFI Odds and Picks
  • MLB NRFI Odds and Picks heading into this weekend’s slate of games
  • Giants are now the best team to the NRFI this year
  • Read below for a full report on the best bet in baseball as we breakdown NRFI odds for all 30 MLB teams

It’s been just a week since the first NRFI report was released, but boy have things changed. The Giants’ slide continues as their bats have gone ice cold, although it’s resulted in them climbing the NRFI rankings to take the top spot, largely thanks to a surprising 4-game NRFI sweep with the Chicago Cubs. Meanwhile, in what looked like the prime NRFI series of the year, the Marlins and Reds combined to produce 5 first-inning runs across two games.

It’s been said before and it’ll be said again, but while the NRFI is the most electric bet in the MLB, it’s also the most unpredictable.

We’ve also seen some major shakeups following the trade deadline, with teams bolstering their pitching staffs and bats, so these records could start to see some drastic changes in the near future.

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With that being said, let’s check out the updated NRFI records across the league.

MLB NRFI Records

Team NRFI YRFI NRFI %
San Francisco Giants 60 44 57.5%
Miami Marlins 59 45 56.5%
Cincinnati Reds 58 45 56.5%
Philadelphia Phillies 58 45 56.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 58 45 56.5%
Baltimore Orioles 58 46 56%
Boston Red Sox 58 47 55%
Cleveland Guardians 57 46 55.5%
Atlanta Braves 57 47 55%
San Diego Padres 57 49 54%
Tampa Bay Rays 55 48 53.5%
Texas Rangers 55 48 53.5%
Milwaukee Brewers 54 48 53%
New York Yankees 55 50 52.5%
Houston Astros 53 52 50.5%
Kansas City Royals 51 52 49.5%
Detroit Tigers 51 54 48.5%
Oakland Athletics 51 54 48.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers 50 53 48.5%
St. Louis Cardinals 50 53 48.5%
Seattle Mariners 50 55 47.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks 49 54 47.5%
Los Angeles Angels 48 54 47%
New York Mets 48 55 46.5%
Washington Nationals 48 57 45.5%
Colorado Rockies 48 58 45.5%
Minnesota Twins 47 55 44.5%
Chicago White Sox 47 56 44.5%
Chicago Cubs 46 56 43.5%
Toronto Blue Jays 46 57 42.5%

Last updated August 5th

The San Francisco Giants have been flat-out awful as of late, dropping 11 of their last 14 games.

A massive part of this can be attributed to a complete lack of offence, so it should come as no surprise that they have been anything but a threat on their end of the NRFI in the last week, scoring just once in seven 1st-Innings.

They only surrendered one run in the 1st during this stretch as well for an overall record of 5-2, catapulting them to the top of the NRFI board as the only team with 60 scoreless 1st innings.

Individual Team Runs Scored in 1st Inning

Team No Runs Scored Scored Team NRFI %
Baltimore Orioles 86 18 82.5%
Miami Marlins 86 18 82.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 84 20 80.5%
Detroit Tigers 85 21 80%
San Francisco Giants 84 23 78%
Texas Rangers 78 25 76.5%
Chicago White Sox 78 25 76.5%
Oakland Athletics 79 26 75%
Philadelphia Phillies 77 26 75%
Arizona Diamondbacks 76 27 74%
Cincinnati Reds 76 27 74%
San Diego Padres 78 28 73.5%
Boston Red Sox 77 28 73.5%
Kansas City Royals 76 28 73%
Los Angeles Angels 74 29 72%
Seattle Mariners 75 30 71.5%
Atlanta Braves 74 30 71%
Cleveland Guardians 73 30 71%
Tampa Bay Rays 72 31 70.5%
Washington Nationals 74 31 70%
Milwaukee Brewers 70 33 68%
Colorado Rockies 72 34 68%
St. Louis Cardinals 69 34 67%
New York Mets 68 35 66%
New York Yankees 68 37 65%
Houston Astros 68 37 65%
Chicago Cubs 66 36 64.5%
Minnesota Twins 61 36 64%
Toronto Blue Jays 65 38 63%
Los Angeles Dodgers 62 41 60%

Last updated August 5th

What we’re already starting to see, and continue to see here is the massive discrepancy between teams when it comes to scoring runs in the first inning. As expected, the best teams are generally the ones scoring most often in the first.

Although it’s always crucial to look at the pitching matchup, teams like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Astros and others that are loaded at the top of the lineup will always have bats more than capable of lifting one out of the park early, so we will generally continue to avoid the bottom 10 or so teams here.

Just look at Rays and Blue Jays 2-game series this past week as an example, as the Rays, despite having the 3rd best defensive NRFI ranking and 4th best ERA, surrendered a run in the 1st inning of both games due to the Jays top-heavy lineup getting started early.

Opponent Runs Scored in 1st Inning

Team Opponent Not Scoring Opponent Scoring Opponent NRFI %
Los Angeles Dodgers 82 21 79.5%
Philadelphia Phillies 81 22 78.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 80 23 77.5%
New York Yankees 81 24 77%
Houston Astros 81 24 77%
Cleveland Guardians 79 24 76.5 %
Milwaukee Brewers 79 24 76.5%
New York Mets 79 24 76.5%
San Diego Padres 80 26 75.5%
Atlanta Braves 78 26 75%
San Francisco Giants 77 27 74%
Chicago Cubs 75 27 73.5%
Seattle Mariners 77 28 73.5%
Cincinnati Reds 75 28 73%
Toronto Blue Jays 74 29 72%
Minnesota Twins 74 29 72%
St. Louis Cardinals 74 29 72%
Kansas City Royals 75 30 71%
Boston Red Sox 73 32 69.5%
Baltimore Orioles 72 32 69%
Texas Rangers 71 32 69%
Miami Marlins 71 33 68.5%
Los Angeles Angels 70 33 68%
Pittsburgh Pirates 70 33 68%
Colorado Rockies 71 35 67%
Chicago White Sox 67 36 65%
Oakland Athletics 68 37 65%
Arizona Diamondbacks 66 37 64%
Washington Nationals 67 38 64%
Detroit Tigers 65 40 62%

Last updated August 5th

There’s not a ton of change in the pitching department, as the bad teams continue to struggle getting out of the 1st unscathed, while the top tier teams dominate.

As we’ve seen, it will always be a fine line to walk when betting on a NRFI that includes a good overall team, as their pitching will have a good chance of getting the job done, but their bats may be the downfall.

Best NRFI Plays – Friday, August 5th

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets: -115

We’ve got a phenomenal pitching duel tonight between the Braves and Mets that has NRFI written all over it. Both the Braves and Mets rank in the top 10 when it comes to opponent NRFI%, and this is certainly bolstered tonight with Ian Anderson (14-6 to the NRFI) facing off against Taijuan Walker (13-5 to the NRFI).

Although these are two of the best teams in baseball, I would not categorize them with the likes of the Dodgers or Yankees when it comes to unpredictable run-scoring in the first.

The Braves are middle-of-the-pack, scoring just 29% of the time in the 1st, while the Mets, who will be the more imminent threat, still only manage 1st-inning scoring 34% of the time. When we get a reasonable line of -115 at any book New York online sports betting market and two great pitchers throwing, we have to capitalize on it.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles: -110

At first glance, one may shy away from the NRFI in this game based on the pitching matchup. The Pirates’ Mitch Keller is 13-7 to the NRFI, but the Orioles’ Dean Kremer is actually 8-2, which includes holding the Yankees, Rays and White Sox all scoreless in the first.

Kremer’s surprising NRFI ability, paired with both teams ranking in the top 3 in highest NRFI% leaves me with no choice but to love this NRFI, especially at -110 odds.

If you don’t like the pitchers, you still have to consider this play solely based on the fact that these teams really struggle to score in the 1st Inning.

Best NRFI Plays – Saturday and Sunday, August 6th-7th

Saturday, August 6th: Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers

Shane McClanahan is projected to take the mound against the Tigers on Saturday night, with Garrett Hill looking to start for Detroit. The Rays, and A.L. Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan have been mowing down offences in the first inning all year. They rank 3rd in opponent NRFI %, allowing runs in just 23 or their 103 games thus far.

McClanahan should have no problem handling the Tigers. The Tigers’ Garrett Hill, on the other hand, is where this has potential to lose. With only 5 starts under his belt and a record of 1-3, his chances don’t look great at first glance. Hill, however, has been a beast in the 1st Inning, with a 4-1 record and avoiding any 1st-inning runs against the likes of the Blue Jays, Padres, and Guardians.

If he can get through the top of those lineups, I am confident he can handle the Rays, who are equal or much less likely to score than those aforementioned teams. Look out for this NRFI play on multiple sportsbooks across the Michigan online sports betting markets on Saturday.

Sunday, August 7th: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

We’ve got another game on Sunday that is eerily similar to the Rays vs Tigers game on Saturday. One stud pitcher against a very subpar pitcher, with it this time being Corbin Burnes against Hunter Greene.

There isn’t much of an explanation for Burnes here, as he’s 21-2 for the NRFI on the season, and faces a Reds team that is top 10 in NRFI on offence. Hunter Greene is where the suspicion is in this game, however he’s surprisingly 9-2 in his last 11 NRFI’s. That, paired with the Brewers somewhat average offensive production in 1st Innings (no runs 68% of games) points me towards the NRFI in this game, as long as the line is reasonable and we won’t have to pay up too much.

Although Ohio online sports betting apps aren’t available just yet, they will be very soon.

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