Aug 12-
- MLB NRFI Odds and Picks heading into this weekend’s slate of games
- Giants, Marlins continue to dominate while Cardinals, Rockies go off the deep end
- Read below for a full report on the best bet in baseball as we breakdown NRFI odds for all 30 MLB teams
After another exciting week of first-inning action, we’re back with the 3rd installment of the NRFI report. There wasn’t much movement NRFI odds and records around the top of the leaderboard, but the mid-to-bottom tier teams experiences some significant changes. Although it didn’t particularly feel like a YRFI-dominant week, the middle of the pack also saw a slight decrease in NRFI%, with a number of teams becoming increasingly susceptible to the always elusive first-inning run.
MLB NRFI Records
| Team | NRFI | YRFI | NRFI % |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | 64 | 46 | 58% |
| Miami Marlins | 63 | 46 | 58% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 62 | 47 | 57% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 62 | 48 | 56.5% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 61 | 48 | 56% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 61 | 49 | 55.5% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 60 | 49 | 55% |
| San Diego Padres | 61 | 52 | 54% |
| Atlanta Braves | 60 | 51 | 54% |
| Boston Red Sox | 60 | 51 | 54% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 58 | 51 | 53% |
| Texas Rangers | 58 | 51 | 53% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 57 | 51 | 53% |
| New York Yankees | 56 | 55 | 50.5% |
| Detroit Tigers | 56 | 55 | 50.5% |
| Kansas City Royals | 55 | 55 | 50% |
| Houston Astros | 55 | 56 | 49.5% |
| Oakland Athletics | 54 | 55 | 49.5% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 54 | 55 | 49.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 53 | 58 | 48% |
| Minnesota Twins | 52 | 56 | 48% |
| Seattle Mariners | 53 | 59 | 47.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 52 | 58 | 47.5% |
| New York Mets | 52 | 59 | 47% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 51 | 58 | 47% |
| Chicago Cubs | 51 | 58 | 47% |
| Washington Nationals | 52 | 60 | 46.5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 50 | 59 | 46% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 50 | 60 | 45.5% |
| Colorado Rockies | 49 | 63 | 44% |
If you even considered betting on a NRFI involving either the Cardinals or Rockies this week, I hope you’ve recovered. The Cardinals pitching staff hasn’t been incredible this season, but they certainly haven’t been bad. Especially not 7 runs against in 7 games-bad, resulting in an unbelievable 1-6 NRFI record on defense alone. And of course the only scoreless half-inning they pitched came after they scored in the top-half, going 0-7 to the NRFI on the week, and becoming the first team to do so this season. The Rockies felt the effects of this abysmal Cardinals’ stretch as well, as they have been a part of the last two YRFI’s with St. Louis, after already going on 1-3 NRFI run as well, for an overall record of 1-5 since the last report. So whatever you do, avoid these teams at all costs right now.
TO THE CRON ZONE!
C.J. Cron's 23rd HR of the season450 FT
111 MPH
22° pic.twitter.com/uodqBB9Pyj— RoxGifsVids (@RoxGifsVids) August 10, 2022
Individual Team Runs Scored in 1st Inning
| Team | No Runs Scored | Scored | Team NRFI % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | 91 | 18 | 83.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 91 | 20 | 82% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 89 | 21 | 81% |
| Detroit Tigers | 90 | 22 | 80.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 87 | 25 | 77.5% |
| Oakland Athletics | 86 | 26 | 77% |
| Chicago White Sox | 85 | 26 | 76.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 82 | 27 | 75% |
| Texas Rangers | 81 | 28 | 74.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 82 | 29 | 74% |
| Boston Red Sox | 82 | 29 | 73.5% |
| Kansas City Royals | 81 | 30 | 73% |
| Washington Nationals | 81 | 32 | 72.5% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 79 | 30 | 72.5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 78 | 31 | 71.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 78 | 31 | 71.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 79 | 32 | 71% |
| Atlanta Braves | 79 | 32 | 71% |
| Seattle Mariners | 79 | 33 | 70.5% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 77 | 32 | 70.5% |
| Colorado Rockies | 77 | 35 | 69% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 73 | 36 | 67% |
| Houston Astros | 74 | 38 | 66% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 72 | 37 | 66% |
| Minnesota Twins | 72 | 37 | 66% |
| New York Mets | 73 | 38 | 65.5% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 71 | 39 | 64.5% |
| New York Yankees | 71 | 40 | 64% |
| Chicago Cubs | 71 | 38 | 64% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 66 | 43 | 60.5% |
At this point, it seems fair to say that the Marlins and Pirates simply cannot hit baseballs in the first inning. Pittsburgh has now gone run-less in the 1st inning in 18 straight games, while the Marlins have managed two first-inning scores in the last 29 games. It’s gotten to the point where regardless of who the opposing pitcher is, you have to consider the NRFI every time. In other news, the Diamondbacks have heated up, scoring in 4 of their last 6 1st innings, so be wary when considering them this weekend.
Opponent Runs Scored in 1st Inning
| Team | Opponent Not Scoring | Opponent Scoring | Opponent NRFI % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 88 | 21 | 80.5% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 86 | 23 | 78.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 85 | 24 | 78% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 85 | 24 | 78% |
| New York Mets | 86 | 25 | 77.5% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 83 | 26 | 77.5% |
| Houston Astros | 84 | 27 | 75.5% |
| San Francisco Giants | 83 | 27 | 75.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 85 | 28 | 75% |
| Atlanta Braves | 83 | 28 | 75% |
| New York Yankees | 83 | 28 | 75.5% |
| Chicago Cubs | 81 | 28 | 73% |
| Seattle Mariners | 82 | 30 | 73% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 79 | 30 | 72.5% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 79 | 31 | 72% |
| Minnesota Twins | 79 | 30 | 72.5% |
| Kansas City Royals | 80 | 32 | 71.5% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 78 | 32 | 71% |
| Texas Rangers | 77 | 32 | 70.5% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 77 | 34 | 69.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 75 | 34 | 69% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 75 | 34 | 69% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 77 | 34 | 69.5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 75 | 36 | 67.5% |
| Chicago White Sox | 74 | 37 | 66.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 73 | 37 | 66.5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 72 | 37 | 66% |
| Colorado Rockies | 73 | 39 | 65% |
| Oakland Athletics | 71 | 40 | 64% |
| Detroit Tigers | 71 | 40 | 64% |
| Washington Nationals | 72 | 41 | 63.5% |
A huge shoutout goes to the Detroit Tigers, who didn’t surrender a single run in 6 1st innings this week, to climb all the way up to the 29th best defensive NRFI team. In all seriousness, this could be an interesting trend to follow, seeing as they will face off against the White Sox (who have scored in the 1st inning 3 times in their last 21 games) and the Guardians (who just went scoreless in the 1st in a 3-game series against Detroit). Meanwhile, St. Louis dropped an entire 3 percentiles.
Best NRFI Play- Friday, August 12th
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
This could come as a surprise to some, but if you’ve ever bet a NRFI that’s involved Austin Voth this year, you’ll understand why I love it so much. He’s never surrendered a run in the 1st inning this year, going a perfect 8-0, which includes a clean inning against the Rays less than a month ago. On the other side is Cory Kluber, who’s 16-4 to the NRFI this season, and 8-2 at home. He’s seen the O’s 4 times already this year, and had it not been for a 2-out homerun from Anthony Santander, would be a perfect 4-0 to the NRFI against them. Nonetheless, the Orioles lead the league in NOT scoring in the 1st, while the Rays are currently on a 9-game scoreless drought in the 1st, which includes failing to score in all four 1st innings in a series with the lowly Tigers. Don’t think twice on this one, and be willing to pay the juice.
Austin Voth K'ing Garcia. 😂 pic.twitter.com/nT81TPSiMy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 5, 2022
Best NRFI Play – Saturday, August 13th
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
There’s a ton of question marks when it comes to the Saturday slate, with several undecided starters yet. There may be some more enticing NRFI’s once the lineups are finalized, but for now, I’m comfortable with zoning in on this matchup between the Tigers and White Sox. Lucas Giolito is expected to take the mound for the Sox, and we know what we’re getting out of him, with a respectable NRFI record of 13-6.
On the other side is Tigers’ Matt Manning, who has far more uncertainty surrounding him. In just 4 stars this season, Manning’s 3-1 to the NRFI. But I’m taking that out of consideration, as this play is based more on the White Sox offence. They’ve struggled in the 1st inning as of late, with three runs in their last 21 1st innings. On top of that, they struggle far more against right-handed pitchers, which plays to Manning’s strengths.
We could see decent value on this play, being that it’s taking place in Chicago and Detroit is still a poor NRFI team, but I’m expecting both pitchers to make it out of the 1st unscathed. So if you’ve got a Illinois sports betting account or any sports betting app keep an eye on the odds for this one.
Best NRFI Play – Sunday, August 14th
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
There’s plenty of good pitching matchups to go around on Sunday, and I already have my eyes on a few, but I’ll go with the matchup between the Mariners and Rangers. Seattle’s expected starter, Logan Gilbert has been great this season, and Martin Perez hasn’t been much worse for the Rangers. The two each have 18 clean 1st innings, combining for an impressive 36-7 record overall. This alone should be convincing enough, but factoring in the fact that neither team is especially dominant on offence in the 1st, with Seattle ranking 13th and Texas sitting at 22nd in 1st-inning runs scored, this NRFI should be a shoe-in. I’m anticipating the odds to be very juiced, but it will definitely be worth the investment.
