NRFI Odds and Records For All 30 MLB Teams – Best Picks This Weekend (Aug 11th-Aug 14th)

Aug 12- 16 min read
MLB NRFI Odds and Records
  • MLB NRFI Odds and Picks heading into this weekend’s slate of games
  • Giants, Marlins continue to dominate while Cardinals, Rockies go off the deep end
  • Read below for a full report on the best bet in baseball as we breakdown NRFI odds for all 30 MLB teams

After another exciting week of first-inning action, we’re back with the 3rd installment of the NRFI report. There wasn’t much movement NRFI odds and records around the top of the leaderboard, but the mid-to-bottom tier teams experiences some significant changes. Although it didn’t particularly feel like a YRFI-dominant week, the middle of the pack also saw a slight decrease in NRFI%, with a number of teams becoming increasingly susceptible to the always elusive first-inning run.

MLB NRFI Records

Team NRFI YRFI NRFI %
San Francisco Giants 64 46 58%
Miami Marlins 63 46 58%
Cincinnati Reds 62 47 57%
Pittsburgh Pirates 62 48 56.5%
Cleveland Guardians 61 48 56%
Baltimore Orioles 61 49 55.5%
Philadelphia Phillies 60 49 55%
San Diego Padres 61 52 54%
Atlanta Braves 60 51 54%
Boston Red Sox 60 51 54%
Tampa Bay Rays 58 51 53%
Texas Rangers 58 51 53%
Milwaukee Brewers 57 51 53%
New York Yankees 56 55 50.5%
Detroit Tigers 56 55 50.5%
Kansas City Royals 55 55 50%
Houston Astros 55 56 49.5%
Oakland Athletics 54 55 49.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers 54 55 49.5%
Chicago White Sox 53 58 48%
Minnesota Twins 52 56 48%
Seattle Mariners 53 59 47.5%
Los Angeles Angels 52 58 47.5%
New York Mets 52 59 47%
Arizona Diamondbacks 51 58 47%
Chicago Cubs 51 58 47%
Washington Nationals 52 60 46.5%
St. Louis Cardinals 50 59 46%
Toronto Blue Jays 50 60 45.5%
Colorado Rockies 49 63 44%

 

If you even considered betting on a NRFI involving either the Cardinals or Rockies this week, I hope you’ve recovered. The Cardinals pitching staff hasn’t been incredible this season, but they certainly haven’t been bad. Especially not 7 runs against in 7 games-bad, resulting in an unbelievable 1-6 NRFI record on defense alone. And of course the only scoreless half-inning they pitched came after they scored in the top-half, going 0-7 to the NRFI on the week, and becoming the first team to do so this season. The Rockies felt the effects of this abysmal Cardinals’ stretch as well, as they have been a part of the last two YRFI’s with St. Louis, after already going on 1-3 NRFI run as well, for an overall record of 1-5 since the last report. So whatever you do, avoid these teams at all costs right now.

Individual Team Runs Scored in 1st Inning

Team No Runs Scored Scored Team NRFI %
Miami Marlins 91 18 83.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 91 20 82%
Baltimore Orioles 89 21 81%
Detroit Tigers 90 22 80.5%
San Francisco Giants 87 25 77.5%
Oakland Athletics 86 26 77%
Chicago White Sox 85 26 76.5%
Cincinnati Reds 82 27 75%
Texas Rangers 81 28 74.5%
San Diego Padres 82 29 74%
Boston Red Sox 82 29 73.5%
Kansas City Royals 81 30 73%
Washington Nationals 81 32 72.5%
Philadelphia Phillies 79 30 72.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks 78 31 71.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 78 31 71.5%
Los Angeles Angels 79 32 71%
Atlanta Braves 79 32 71%
Seattle Mariners 79 33 70.5%
Cleveland Guardians 77 32 70.5%
Colorado Rockies 77 35 69%
Milwaukee Brewers 73 36 67%
Houston Astros 74 38 66%
St. Louis Cardinals 72 37 66%
Minnesota Twins 72 37 66%
New York Mets 73 38 65.5%
Toronto Blue Jays 71 39 64.5%
New York Yankees 71 40 64%
Chicago Cubs 71 38 64%
Los Angeles Dodgers 66 43 60.5%

 

At this point, it seems fair to say that the Marlins and Pirates simply cannot hit baseballs in the first inning. Pittsburgh has now gone run-less in the 1st inning in 18 straight games, while the Marlins have managed two first-inning scores in the last 29 games. It’s gotten to the point where regardless of who the opposing pitcher is, you have to consider the NRFI every time. In other news, the Diamondbacks have heated up, scoring in 4 of their last 6 1st innings, so be wary when considering them this weekend.

Opponent Runs Scored in 1st Inning

Team Opponent Not Scoring Opponent Scoring Opponent NRFI %
Los Angeles Dodgers 88 21 80.5%
Philadelphia Phillies 86 23 78.5%
Milwaukee Brewers 85 24 78%
Cleveland Guardians 85 24 78%
New York Mets 86 25 77.5%
Tampa Bay Rays 83 26 77.5%
Houston Astros 84 27 75.5%
San Francisco Giants 83 27 75.5%
San Diego Padres 85 28 75%
Atlanta Braves 83 28 75%
New York Yankees 83 28 75.5%
Chicago Cubs 81 28 73%
Seattle Mariners 82 30 73%
Cincinnati Reds 79 30 72.5%
Toronto Blue Jays 79 31 72%
Minnesota Twins 79 30 72.5%
Kansas City Royals 80 32 71.5%
Baltimore Orioles 78 32 71%
Texas Rangers 77 32 70.5%
Los Angeles Angels 77 34 69.5%
Miami Marlins 75 34 69%
St. Louis Cardinals 75 34 69%
Los Angeles Angels 77 34 69.5%
Boston Red Sox 75 36 67.5%
Chicago White Sox 74 37 66.5%
Pittsburgh Pirates 73 37 66.5%
Arizona Diamondbacks 72 37 66%
Colorado Rockies 73 39 65%
Oakland Athletics 71 40 64%
Detroit Tigers 71 40 64%
Washington Nationals 72 41 63.5%

 

A huge shoutout goes to the Detroit Tigers, who didn’t surrender a single run in 6 1st innings this week, to climb all the way up to the 29th best defensive NRFI team. In all seriousness, this could be an interesting trend to follow, seeing as they will face off against the White Sox (who have scored in the 1st inning 3 times in their last 21 games) and the Guardians (who just went scoreless in the 1st in a 3-game series against Detroit). Meanwhile, St. Louis dropped an entire 3 percentiles.

Best NRFI Play- Friday, August 12th

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays

This could come as a surprise to some, but if you’ve ever bet a NRFI that’s involved Austin Voth this year, you’ll understand why I love it so much. He’s never surrendered a run in the 1st inning this year, going a perfect 8-0, which includes a clean inning against the Rays less than a month ago. On the other side is Cory Kluber, who’s 16-4 to the NRFI this season, and 8-2 at home. He’s seen the O’s 4 times already this year, and had it not been for a 2-out homerun from Anthony Santander, would be a perfect 4-0 to the NRFI against them. Nonetheless, the Orioles lead the league in NOT scoring in the 1st, while the Rays are currently on a 9-game scoreless drought in the 1st, which includes failing to score in all four 1st innings in a series with the lowly Tigers. Don’t think twice on this one, and be willing to pay the juice.

 

Best NRFI Play – Saturday, August 13th

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

There’s a ton of question marks when it comes to the Saturday slate, with several undecided starters yet. There may be some more enticing NRFI’s once the lineups are finalized, but for now, I’m comfortable with zoning in on this matchup between the Tigers and White Sox. Lucas Giolito is expected to take the mound for the Sox, and we know what we’re getting out of him, with a respectable NRFI record of 13-6.

On the other side is Tigers’ Matt Manning, who has far more uncertainty surrounding him. In just 4 stars this season, Manning’s 3-1 to the NRFI. But I’m taking that out of consideration, as this play is based more on the White Sox offence. They’ve struggled in the 1st inning as of late, with three runs in their last 21 1st innings. On top of that, they struggle far more against right-handed pitchers, which plays to Manning’s strengths.

We could see decent value on this play, being that it’s taking place in Chicago and Detroit is still a poor NRFI team, but I’m expecting both pitchers to make it out of the 1st unscathed. So if you’ve got a Illinois sports betting account or any sports betting app keep an eye on the odds for this one.

nrfi odds and records

Best NRFI Play – Sunday, August 14th

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers

There’s plenty of good pitching matchups to go around on Sunday, and I already have my eyes on a few, but I’ll go with the matchup between the Mariners and Rangers. Seattle’s expected starter, Logan Gilbert has been great this season, and Martin Perez hasn’t been much worse for the Rangers. The two each have 18 clean 1st innings, combining for an impressive 36-7 record overall. This alone should be convincing enough, but factoring in the fact that neither team is especially dominant on offence in the 1st, with Seattle ranking 13th and Texas sitting at 22nd in 1st-inning runs scored, this NRFI should be a shoe-in. I’m anticipating the odds to be very juiced, but it will definitely be worth the investment.

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