MLB Betting: An Over & Favorite I Like Today

Apr 28- 6 min read

MLB Betting For Thursday April 28th

We managed to get one of our two MLB underdogs to the finish line yesterday, which I can’t complain about when it was +160. It’s back to the drawing board early today as the slate is pretty full this afternoon. I’m looking at a first 5 moneyline and over that start before 1:30pm EST today.

Reds F5 ML (-125) – Best Odds: PointsBet

The Cincinnati Reds are the worst team in Major League Baseball this season. Having notched just 3 wins in their first 18 games. Today’s starter for Cincinnati, Tyler Mahle, has contributed to one of those three wins. After a dazzling start in the season opener. It’s been rough sledding since though, he’s given up 14 runs (10 earned) in his last 3 starts.

On the surface, his numbers don’t look very inviting with a 6.88 ERA, but his underlying numbers indicate positive regression. His opponent barrel percentage is literally 0% and his expected ERA is less than half his actual at 2.99. The Pads hitters haven’t seen much of Mahle and I expect his repertoire of pitches to keep them off balance.

On the other side of the field, Nick Martinez gets the start for San Diego. His numbers, already not great at 0-2 and a 4.29 ERA. But the underlying stats are horrendous, his expected ERA is 7.04, his opponent barrel% is in the 4th percentile and his opponent expected batting average is .291. This is a great spot for the Reds to find their way with the bats.

I’m a little worried about backing the Reds for the full game without Mahle, so the first 5 innings is how I’m approaching this one.

Tigers/Twins OVER 7 (-110) – Best Odds: BetRivers

MLB

The UNDER in Major League Baseball has been on quite the run so far this season, it’s still hitting above a 60% rate. As a result, we’ve seen totals plummet across the league. The Tigers are 11-6 to the under and the Twins are 11-6-1 to the under, but now I see this number as a bit of an over correction.

Tigers starter, Tarik Skubal, has been quite kind to the Twins in his career. Last season he gave up 7 home runs in 3 starts and authored a 6.28 ERA. Look for Byron Buxton to help us out in this one as he’s hit 2 home runs in 6 career at bats against the Tigers lefty.

Bailey Ober goes for the Twins and he hasn’t been missing many barrels so far this year. His opponent barrel% is in the 9th percentile. Although his ERA shows 2.81 his expected ERA is 5.78 to go along with an expected slugging percentage of .615. Although the Tigers haven’t been putting the bat on the ball enough against righties this year, I think Ober gives them a prime opportunity to generate some runs.

 

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