MLB Betting: A Strikeout Prop & Underdog to Bet

Apr 19- 7 min read
MLB Bets

MLB Betting for April 19th

After a rainout filled Monday in Major League Baseball, Tuesday marks the kick-off of a number of new series. It’s still early in the year, with some pitchers making their second round through the rotation. Eventually you’ll be able to use more 2022 MLB data then 2021 but it’s still early.

With that in mind, let’s get into a strikeout prop and side that I like today on the MLB slate.

MLB

Minnesota Twins (-125) @ Kansas City Royals

The Twins come to town having split their previous series with the Red Sox with an 8-3 win on Monday afternoon. The bats have been pretty inconsistent for Minnesota, largely because of their 9.9 strikeouts per game that ranks 28th in the big leagues. They’ve been a long ball or nothing type team so far.

Meanwhile the Royals have had even more struggles producing runs so far this season, scoring just 3.1 runs per game. They’re putting the ball in play though, as they have one of the league’s lowest strikeout rates.

Chris Archer takes the hill for Minnesota, he’s coming off a solid introductory start against the Dodgers. He threw 4.0 innings in 63 pitches, allowing just 2 hits and no runs. Archer was signed at the start of April, so it seems as though his leash may be short early on.

I don’t see Archer finding the same success here. The middle part of the Royals lineup, Benintendi, Perez and Santana are hitting a combined .356 in 45 at bats against Archer in their career. They’ve also been putting the ball in play a lot against righties, with just a 17.2% strikeout rate that ranks 2nd in MLB.

Archer has taken a step back in terms of his swing and miss stuff over the last few years. He’s also thrown very few innings, just 19.1 in 2021. His strikeout total tonight sits at 4.5 and considering his limited innings he may not have much time to get to it.

The Royals deploy a disciplined lineup that has seen much better results against right handers. I like the under the Twins pitcher’s strikeouts tonight, even considering the juice.

Chris Archer UNDER 4.5 K’s (Best Odds: Caesars at -145)

Baltimore Orioles @ Oakland Athletics (-140)

The Orioles have been off to a pretty brutal start to the season, which isn’t a surprise to many. The bats have been awfully cold, they have a league worst 28.9% strikeout rate. The pitching though has been a pleasant surprise though, they rank 2nd in the American League in ERA at 2.86.

What better recipe to get things right offensively then a matchup with a soft throwing lefty who’s K-rate is in the 6th percentile in Major League Baseball? That’s what the Orioles have at home tonight against Cole Irvin. Irvin doesn’t miss many bats and relies on filling the zone and inducing soft contact.

The Orioles have had some good metrics when it comes to actually putting the ball in play. Their BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) ranks 9th in the Majors at .298. The Orioles typically deploy a really right handed heavy lineup too, which is great against Irvin, who’s given up 3 homeruns and a .294 AVG against 34 right handed bats this season.

The Orioles have some really good value tonight as plus money home underdogs. Irvin may be able to miss more bats than usual but this could be a get right spot for Baltimore’s lineup.

Orioles ML (Best Odds: Caesars at +125)

 

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