Mets vs Marlins Odds, Pick, and Prediction – Walker vs Alcantara

The New York Mets and Miami Marlins face off on Friday, June 23rd, with the first pitch set at 6:40 PM ET. New York will start Taijuan Walker (5-2, 2.88 ERA), and Miami will start ace Sandy Alcantara (7-2, 1.72 ERA). The game will be played at LoanDepot Park in Miami, Florida. The home team is listed as slight favorites in the Mets vs Marlins odds.

The Mets (45-26) are one of the best teams in Major League Baseball this season. New York sits a ton the standings in the National League East Division, four games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets head to Miami for a three-game road series. Over their last 10 games, the Mets are 6-4, even though they were just swept in a short two-game series against the Houston Astros.

The Marlins (32-36) are certainly not in the same league as the Mets regarding talent. That said, they are a much stronger team at home than they are on the road in 2022. They have an above .500 record at home, while on the road, they are only 11-18. Miami sits in fourth place in the National League East division.

Let’s look at the Mets vs Marlins odds at Caesars Sportsbook for June 23, 2022.

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

New York online sports betting markets list the Mets as underdogs. Despite being on the road, NY bettors can get great value on the Mets in this matchup.

New York Sports Betting Markets List Mets as Road Underdogs

One thing to note when talking about Taijuan Walker is how he’s been able to escape dangerous scenarios this year. Batters this season have hit the ball extremely hard off Walker, yet he’s found a way to keep his ERA below two (1.72 ERA). His average exit velocity sits just below 90 MPH at 89.9 MPH. Looking deeper, Walker’s xERA sits over a full point higher than his actual ERA. This is confirmation that he has found a bit of luck in 2022 thus far.

Some GREAT pitching from Taijuan Walker to get out of trouble! 😤 pic.twitter.com/VIZe5g2MUP

— SNY (@SNYtv) June 18, 2022

The Miami Marlins have more than five hitters with an xwOBA over .340 off right-handed pitchers in June. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler lead this Marlins offense with over a 90 MPH exit velocity. Walker’s strikeout rate in 2022 is 4% lower than in 2021, which means more balls are being put into play. Since Walker falls subject to high exit velocity, the Marlins offense will have a great chance to jump on him early and often.

Can Alcantara Keep His NL CY Young Bid Going?

When looking at the pitching matchup in this game, it’s clear why Miami is the favorite in the Mets vs Marlins odds. Alcantara is one of the leaders for the National League Cy Young award and has shown no signs of slowing down. Additionally, New York has struggled with right-handed pitching in June. Only Pete Alonso and Mark Canha have an xwOBA over .340.

Alcantara has gone seven or more innings in all four of his starts this month and should be able to take the load off of the Marlins bullpen who has seen lots of action in the last few days. The Marlins are coming off a three-game sweep of Colorado as they come into this home game off six straight wins at LoadDepot Park.

Mets vs Marlins Pick & Prediction

When looking to bet this game, one key thing is that the Marlins have a much worse bullpen than the Mets. Miami needed to use six relievers in Wednesday’s game, so they will likely lean on Alcantara to eat up a good chunk of innings Friday night.

Alcantara has a clear edge over Walker and the Mets offense has struggled off right-handed pitching the last few weeks. Due to this, I will not mess with the Marlins bullpen and jump on the Marlins first five innings line. I’ll be throwing one unit on Miami First 5 Innings -0.5 at +110 in the Mets vs Marlins odds on Caesars Sportsbook.

To compare other sportsbooks, BetRivers is offering Miami to win the first five at -104. However, BetMGM is offering the Marlins F5 -0.5 at +110.

Pick: Miami Marlins First 5 -0.5 (+110)