2021 Homerun Derby Predictions

Jul 8- 6 min read

2021 Homerun Derby Predictions




Shohei Ohtani (1) vs Juan Soto (8)


As much as I want to call the upset here and pick Juan Soto, I can’t. I think Ohtani takes this round and gives us the most homeruns in the first round out of all the matchups.

A couple things I love about Ohtani include his;

17.7 launch angle and max exit velocity of 119 mph. He has an uppercut swing, which will help him in this Homerun Derby. Also, Ohtani is leading the league with 32 Homeruns and is tied for most no doubters in the MLB (16). This is my favorite first round matchup and cannot wait to see these two compete.


Salvador Perez (4) vs Pete Alonso (5)


I’m calling the upset here and predicting Perez defeats the previous homerun derby champ Alonso.

Perez currently has 20 Homeruns, but has an expected homerun total of 25.5. He’s having a great year and I could see him surprising a lot of baseball fans. The underlying stats all point towards Alonso winning this matchup, but I believe Perez will pull off the victory.


Joey Gallo (2) vs Trevor Story (7)


This is my second favorite matchup of the 1st round and I’m surprisingly going with Trevor Story. 

Joey Gallo is obviously a massive human being who can crush the baseball. I have trust in Trevor Story taking this matchup, since he’s been heating up and mostly because he will be hitting at Coors Field. He will have the whole stadium behind his back to win this Homerun Derby.

Story currently only has 11 homeruns, but has an expected homerun total of 18.8. Story is also riding a 72.7 no doubter % as 8 of his 11 homeruns have left the park in no doubter fashion.


Matt Olson (3) vs Trey Mancini (6)


I’ve been outspoken on loving Matt Olson and how he’s MLB’s Most Underrated Player. I truly believe this matchup is a toss up, but I’m siding with my guy in Matt Olson.

Olson currently has 21 homeruns on the year. He’s also in the Top 5% in Max EV with 115.3 MPH. He has solid numbers across the board and should be amped competing in his first Homerun Derby.





Shohei Ohtani (1) vs Salvador Perez (4)


I have to stick with the man himself in Ohtani.

This is 100% an easier matchup for Ohtani compared to Juan Soto and I think he easily takes this semi-finals. Ohtani’s swing is more built for the homerun derby compared to Perez.

Trevor Story (7) vs Matt Olson (3)


I would really enjoy this matchup, since I am a huge fan of both these players. I’m sticking with Trevor Story. 

Story hitting in Coors Field is a huge bonus and I think he outduels Olson.




Shohei Ohtani (1) vs Trevor Story (7)


Most people AKA everyone would have Ohtani winning this matchup. I am going the other way and picking Trevor Story as my 2021 Homerun Derby Champion.

This would be a hell of a matchup, the fan favorite Ohtani versus the Rockies star Story. This is finals Colorado would want and this is the finals I could see happening.

With the crowd behind Story, I love him as an underdog to win this Homerun Derby!


Trevor Story - 2021 Homerun Derby


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