Early Bust Candidates for 2022 Fantasy Football
When it comes time for a fantasy draft, the most common thing people look at is a player’s ADPs or average draft position. This is a good indication of what the majority of people think of that player and of fantasy drafts as a whole. In this article I am going to talk about players who I think will drastically underperform compared to their ADP and bust in 2022. Without further ado, these are three early bust candidates for 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Consensus ADP: 31 (RB16)
Antonio Gibson has been fairly solid over the past two seasons finishing as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. I believe Gibson will be a bust this year not because of talent, but his opportunity in Washington’s offense or lack thereof. In the games that J.D McKissic played last season, Gibson averaged only 12.1 fantasy points per game (RB23).
Additionally, the Commanders drafted fellow running back Brian Robinson in the third round who will take short-yardage carries away from Gibson. The Commanders clearly were not overly impressed with Gibson last season, as they went out of their way to resign J.D McKissic and invested another top-100 pick into an RB.
-Antonio Gibson fantasy investors https://t.co/wdOni17hBA
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) March 16, 2022
Furthermore, there are other rumblings in the Washington camp that they are lowering his workload because of fumble issues. Since 2020, he and Ezekiel Elliot are tied for the most fumbles by running backs with six each. Commanders head coach, Ron Rivera, has even said in interviews that he will use a running back by committee approach. It is very unlikely that Gibson repeats his fourth ranked 300 touch workload from last season, where he still only finished as the RB16. He’s outside the top-20 in our running back rankings.
Consensus ADP: 27 (RB14)
Without a doubt, Cam Akers should be a running back fantasy managers should fear as a bust candidate this coming season. He is coming off a severe Achilles injury that a lot of players have struggled to come back from. He only played one regular season game last season before coming back for the playoffs. In the playoffs, he only averaged 43 yards a game and an abysmal 2.57 yards an attempt, with no touchdowns.
Lowest seasonal 2021 PFF Rushing Grades:
Dalvin Cook 60th
David Montgomery 64th
Alvin Kamara 79th
Saquon Barkley 80th
Antonio Gibson 82nd
D'Andre Swift 108th
Cam Akers 147th
— Nick Whalen (@_NickWhalen) June 3, 2022
Additionally, the Rams have a running back by committee system, where fellow running backs Sony Michel and Darrell Henderson had 229 and 178 touches respectively last season. I strongly dislike Akers at his ADP this season. I believe Aaron Jones, James Connor, and JK Dobbins are all better options who are getting drafted below Akers.
Consensus ADP: 25 (WR9)
A.J Brown has bust candidate written all over him. He is coming from a Titans offense where he was the WR1 with a ridiculous target rate of 32.9%, fourth in the NFL. To an Eagles offense that is heavily run focused and ranked last in the NFL in passing attempts last season.
Additionally, the Eagles already have many talented receiving options, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert had 104 and 76 receptions respectively. They have also spent a lot of draft capital at receiver with former first-round pick Jalen Reagor as well as other draft picks, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Quez Watkins.
There are many players that are being drafted below Brown that I believe will have much better fantasy seasons than him. Some of these players include Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Diontae Johnson, and DK Metcalf. Unless Jalen Hurts can take an unforeseen jump in his passing game I don’t see Brown finishing inside the top 15 WRs in fantasy.