Whenever we look for players to fade on a given week, I present the same caveat. Intentionally avoiding a player carries risk.
Risk is required to win tournaments.
Ergo, risk wins tournaments.
Not really, but the point still remains. We have as much an opportunity to get beat by our decisions as we do benefit from them, but such is the nature of the beast. Whether it’s salary or matchup-based, we will always put ourselves in a better position to win if we trim our list of possible targets.
QB Josh Allen – BUF $8,000 at NYJ – The first — and easily most obvious — reason to avoid Josh Allen on Sunday is his price. It’s the highest of all players — quarterback-or-not — and essentially means that he needs to be one of the best in order to justify his value. Can he do it? Absolutely. But can we benefit from the possibility that he delivers a more average fantasy score? Indeed, and that’s where we want to focus our attention.
In looking for ways that Allen would be worthy of a fade, we can present a handful of hypotheticals. It’s not likely for all of them to come true, but some will.
What if the New York Jets play better as a team as a result of Mike White lining up under center? What if the Jets win a second massive ‘upset’ at home? What if Buffalo stumbles on the road again, just like it did in Jacksonville? What if the Bills win by 50 points, but they never need to throw the ball?
Once again, we’re asking a lot, but these are all outcomes that wouldn’t be completely impossible. The Bills did just lose to the Jaguars while the Jets did beat the Bengals a few weeks ago.
In the end, the main reason for avoiding Allen is saving the money and potentially playing against the chalk.
RB Aaron Jones – GB $6,600 vs. SEA – Aaron Jones has solidified himself as one of the best running backs in the National Football League but, as anyone who plays any form of fantasy football knows, a large portion of a running back’s value is derived from volume and opportunities. Jones’ yards-per-carry is solid, as always, but he just isn’t getting enough carries to be a top-flight option in a tournament-winning lineup unless he finds the end zone multiple times. I don’t want to count on touchdowns as the main source of fantasy points.
This season, Jones has not had a single game in which he carried the ball at least 20 times. Not surprisingly, he has broken the 100-yard mark only once. He does have the benefit of playing against one of the worst defenses in the league, as the Seattle Seahawks are allowing the second-most yards-per-game, but the Seahawks’ defense is actually top-ten in one specific area: preventing rushing touchdowns.
The Green Bay Packers are not overly likely to be playing with a large enough lead where they will constantly hadn’t the ball off to Jones but, even if there were in such a situation, it is clear that A.J. Dillon is taking away some of Jones’ rush attempts.
QB Ryan Tannehill – $6,300 vs. NO – One of my favorite approaches to anything involving football predictions is to recognize when you can sell at a high point. I specifically wrote about targeting Ryan Tannehill in last week’s articles. I was buying.
Now I’m selling.
Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans showed that they can win without superstar running back Derrick Henry, but that was in a single game in a standalone setting — Primetime, big underdog, and proving the sports media wrong were also contributing factors. As a result, the Titans are asked to continue their winning ways for a longer stretch of time, and do so against a New Orleans Saints team that has the second-most interceptions in the league and is allowing the fifth-fewest points-per-game.
We have seen Tannehill step up and prove that he can win games in the National Football League. We have also seen the offense outperform its numbers, as the Titans rank fifth-best in points-per-game but only 15th in yards-per-game.
If we want to pick-and-choose the spots where we can look for the Titans’ offense to still thrive without Henry, then Sunday is the time to avoid instead of target.
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