- The undefeated Jayhawks host the Cyclones in BIG12 action
- Jayhawks are home underdogs in the Iowa State vs Kansas odds
- Read below for our college football betting pick for the game
The Kansas Jayhawks are undefeated, with three power-5 wins on the season. Yes, that is a real sentence in the year 2022. Lance Leipold has this train rolling in year two, can he keep it going against the Cyclones? The Jayhawks are home underdogs in the Iowa State vs Kansas odds on Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, Matt Campbell’s Cyclones find themselves in a bit of a transition period but did manage to win the Cy-Hawk game in week 2. Coming off a 31-24 loss to Baylor it’s important for them to get on the board in BIG12 play. Let’s take a look at the Iowa State vs Kansas odds, analysis and pick for this conference matchup.
Iowa State vs Kansas Odds
|Iowa State Cylcones
|O 59 (-107)
|U 59 (-107)
Odds courtesy of PointsBet!
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Jalon Daniels for Heisman Trophy?
Kansas hasn’t won four games in a season since 2009, they’ve done it in four weeks thanks to quarterback Jalon Daniels. Despite only attempting 25 passes per game, Daniels is averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and completing 71% of his passes. He also leads the team in rushing yards with 320, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and 4 TD’s on the ground.
The offensive line has been stout, returning four starters has certainly helped with that. Daniels 16.7% pressure rate is the 16th lowest in the nation. Which is an impressive feat considering they went up against a stout West Virginia front. They’ve been improved in the run game too, with a run blocking grade ranking 48th courtesy of PFF.
Jalon Daniels FBS ranks:
– 98.0 QBR: 1st
– 15 total TD's: 5th
– 11 passing TD's: 12th
– .710 comp. %: 18th
– 9.6 yds per pass: 14th
– 8.6 yds per rush: 4th pic.twitter.com/7yinc0xszi
— Nick Schwerdt (@nick_schwerdt) September 26, 2022
The defense, although returning plenty of production and adding talent through the transfer portal, hasn’t been quite as good. They’ve allowed 33.0 points per game and have been gashed through the air. They’ve struggled to generate pressure against opposing QB’s, ranking 104th in pressure rate. While also ranking 109th in opponent yards per pass attempt.
Iowa State Road Favorite in Week 5 CFB Odds
Despite the Jayhawks hot start it’s actually the Cyclones that are favored in Iowa sports betting markets. That likely has a lot to do with their run defense that’s going up against a Kansas team that’s running the ball on 60.6% of plays. Opposing running backs are averaging just 3.6 YPA, which is 17th in the nation. They’re one of the most disciplined tackling teams in college football, limiting opponents from breaking big plays.
The offense has some question marks, but it’s one that’s relied on throwing the football. Their 38.7 pass attempts per game is 24th in the country. That’s going to be a good formula against this Kansas team. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers has benefited from some great protection, with just a 4.3% sack rate on the season. Xaiver Hutchinson has looked fantastic so far, already racking up a BIG12 leading 403 receiving yards and 5 TD’s.
🏈📊 #Big12FB Individual Leaders through Sept. 29 ⤵️
Passing ➡️ Donovan Smith
Rushing ➡️ Deuce Vaughn
Receiving ➡️ Xavier Hutchinson
Tackles ➡️ Jaylan Ford
Sacks ➡️ Lonnie Phelps | Reggie Grimes
Punting ➡️ Ty Zentner | Tyler Perkins pic.twitter.com/BzYwMYwZSA
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 29, 2022
Running back Jirehl Brock should have some more room to run in this one. Kansas’ front four isn’t making many plays in the backfield, with the 12th lowest stuff rate in the country. This should leave them in a good position to continue converting on third down at a high rate, which is already at 46.9% on the season.
Iowa State vs Kansas Betting Pick
I think this is the end of the line for Kansas’ undefeated run. Iowa State is a disciplined tackling team that can stop a high volume, dual threat rushing attack from the Jayhawks. This is going to lead to Jalon Daniels running into a number of 3rd and long situations, where the Cyclones thrive. Iowa State is 11th in opponent third down conversion rate at just 27%.
I also think the Kansas defense plays right into what Iowa State naturally wants to do. Kansas is struggling to generate push on the defensive line, giving opposing QB’s plenty of time to survey the field. With the 74th ranked coverage grade according to PFF, I like Xaiver Hutchinson and Hunter Dekkers to have success against the Kansas secondary.
Pick: Iowa State -3 (-107) at PointsBet