- Knoxville plays host to an exciting SEC East battle
- Volunteers are two score home favorite in the Florida vs Tennessee odds
- Read below for our college football betting pick in this game
Why isn’t this game getting the night time treatment? An SEC rivalry game under the lights in Knoxville is bucket list type stuff for college football fans. We’ll have settle for the 3:30pm EST slot in week 4 of college football. The Florida vs Tennessee odds indicate that this game might not live up to what it’s anticipated to be. The Volunteers are two score favorites on Saturday.
The Gators kicked off their 2022 season in a big way with a win over defending PAC12 champion Utah, but fell flat offensively against Kentucky the next week. Meanwhile Tennessee has been moving the ball with ease while avenging last years loss to Pittsburgh with a win on the road at Acrisure Stadium.
Florida vs Tennessee Odds
|Florida Gators||+278||+10.5 (-117)||O 62.5 (-117)|
|Tennessee Volunteers||-355||-10.5 (-117)||U 62.5 (-117)|
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook!
With Tennessee sports betting markets list the Volunteers as such significant favorites, those looking to back Tennessee may need to get creative. The Vols are 6.5 point favorites in the first half and Hendon Hooker’s passing yards over/under is listed at 266.5 at Caesars Sportsbook TN.
Since 2021 the Volunteers are 12-4 to the over, which is one of the best records in the nation. Meanwhile, the Gators are 7-9 to the over during that same stretch. The betting total sits at 62.5 at Caesars Sportsbook and across the Tennessee sports betting market.
Anthony Richardson Searching for First Pass TD of Season
With Billy Napier taking the head coaching job at Florida, the offensive identity has seen a bit of a change. The Gators are taking a run first approach, going to the ground of 54.6% of plays. It’s gone really well in some difficult matchups, Florida is averaging 6.7 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 4th in the country.
You’d think the success of the success of the rushing attack would help the passing game, that hasn’t been the case though. Richardson is completing just 52.6% of his passes and averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt. Just 34.6% of their passing plays have had a positive EPA. Part of that is on the quarterback, but the same issue from the offseason is persisting in the fact that there isn’t enough wide receiver talent.
Here are the top 8 QBs in Florida by QBR:
1. Jordan Travis (FSU) 84.8
2. Tate Rodemaker (FSU) 77.5
3. John Rhys Plumlee (UCF) 69.6
4. Tyler Van Dyke (Mia) 57.3
5. N’kosi Perry (FAU) 49.3
6. Mikey Keene (UCF) 43.0
7. Gerry Bohanon (USF) 40.2
8. Anthony Richardson (FL) 35.9
— Atlanta Nole 🍢 (@nole_atl) September 18, 2022
The defense is what will really be tested for the Gators. Tennessee comes at a lightning pace and is one of the best 1st quarter teams in college football. They’ve been able to drum up plenty of pressure, but haven’t turned those opportunities into sacks. The secondary has plenty of talent in the starting five, the question for this entire defense will be how their depth holds up with how fast the Vols want to play.
Tennessee Home Favorite in College Football Odds
There’s not a lot of data to work with when it comes to whether or not this Tennessee defense is improved. The Panthers would be the best opponent, but once they lost Kedon Slovis the offense was in no way dynamic. So seeing their 4th ranked stuff rate at 32.9% still doesn’t have me believing they’ve completely turned a corner. But last season this front seven could get in the backfield, ranking 7th in tackles for loss.
The injury front is question mark for the Volunteers, star wide receiver Cedric Tillman left midway through the second quarter last week. Heupel wouldn’t provide a firm update, saying he’s hopeful Tillman can play. If he is indeed absent, I think quarterback Hendon Hooker will be just fine with Jalin Hyatt and Bru McCoy at his disposal.
The Volunteers offense is an overwhelming test no matter the talent on the other side. Only two teams have played at a faster pace so far in 2022 and they’re ripping off 7.0 yards per play. The passing game is explosive, with average throw depth of 12.0 yards (10th) but also completing 72.5% of passes.
Florida vs Tennessee Betting Pick
The Gators have won an astounding 16 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. The last four years have been ass kickings by Florida too. I think their current five game win streak ends here though. The Gators are missing the downfield passing game to be able to keep up with Tennessee.
I like the size that the Volunteers have in their front four as well as their nose for the backfield, they can continue to make plays to stop the run in this game. On the offensive side for the Vols I like what their pace can do to test a Florida team that has talent on the surface but if you get to the second stringers they’re in trouble. The Gators won’t be able to slow this game down all night, Tennessee breaks through in a big way in the second half.
Pick: Tennessee -10.5 (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook